A quick response to reader Ethan's recent comment about whether the Grizzlies should pursue Emeka Okafor:
I didn't mean to imply that the team SHOULDN'T go after Okafor. I meant that using the cap space right now didn't HAVE to be just a matter of a major free-agent target.
On Okafor -- he would add some much-needed defense, rebounding, and experience to the frontline. But, I think there are a couple of problems:
1. Fit: Is he a center or power forward. If he's a center then you're probably already in decent shape there with Darko/Gasol and certainly already have money tied up at that position.
If he's a power forward, then he's a bad fit with Darko (no offense). He's a better fit with Gasol is Gasol can be an immediate scoring threat, but that's a pretty slow frontcourt. Is that a problem? Not sure.
If there were some way to include Darko in a sign-and-trade for Okafor, I think that would be a good fit, but with Larry Brown in Charlotte, I don't see that happening.
2. Cost: Okafor would be a good get for the right price, but he's restricted, so you probably can't get him for the right price. If it takes a max-type deal to get him, is that really worth it for an injury-prone big man with limited scoring ability? I like Okafor, but I tend to think he's a little overrated.
Some of the same concerns, in terms of fit (dupicating Rudy) and cost would apply to Josh Smith as well.
I'd continue to explore potential trade targets, such as Anderson Varejao, Josh Boone/Sean Williams, and David Lee, though I think the market for those players is less than what it used to be since all three teams have somewhat addressed their backcourts recently.
I've had a few questions — both on the site and out in the real world — lately about the lack of new posts over the past week or so.
I've been waylaid recently by the perfect storm of epic Dark Knight review, cover story on the new Craig Brewer project, and, of more relevance to this forum, a deadline yesterday for the Grizzlies story in the Lindy's NBA preview magazine.
So, in the absence of major team news to deal with, what little time I've had recently to do Grizzlies-related work has had to be devoted to working on the Lindy's piece.
Anyway: I'm clawing out of the muck now and hope to get back to regular Griz-blogging this weekend.
Like Bull Durham's great Nuke LaLoosh, O.J. Mayo announced his presence with authority in his pro debut earlier tonight.
Mayo had 15 points, 5 assists, 3 steals and a monster dunk, while fellow rookie Darrell Arthur scored a game-high 18 points with silky outside shooting as the Grizzlies beat the Hornets 88-75 in the team’s first game at the Las Vegas Summer League.
The game was shown only via a live stream on NBA.com. (No, I didn’t get a chance to watch.)
The Memphis Grizzlies held a press conference in the lobby of FedExForum today to introduce the newest player to don Beale Street Blue: Spanish center Marc Gasol, who signed what is reportedly a three-year, $10 million contract to play for the Grizzlies.
Acquired, in a perhaps unprecedented moment of hoops irony, in last season’s trade of older brother Pau to the Los Angeles Lakers, Gasol should be plenty familiar to local hoops fans already: In addition to being the equally cavemanish younger brother of the franchise’s scoring leader, Marc also prepped at Lausanne Collegiate School here before heading back home to Spain to play for his hometown pro team, FC Barcelona.
Those same local fans might not recognize the younger Gasol though: After five years playing pro ball in Spain, the heavyset teenager who once palled around FedExForum with high-school teammate Johnnie “Son of Jerry” West before Grizzlies games has transformed into a muscular, sturdy athlete — one who, in five seasons, evolved from a possible legacy signee to the best player in the world’s second-best league. Gasol won the MVP of Spain’s ACB league last season.
The previous four ACB MVPs (Juan Carlos Navarro, Luis Scola, Walter Herrmann, and Andres Nocioni) have all come to the NBA and held their own. Gasol is younger and bigger than any of them heading into the league and thus likely a higher-caliber prospect.
Gasol’s press conference wasn’t terribly interesting, as these canned photo-op events rarely are. Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace called Gasol “one of the most improved players I’ve ever seen,” while Gasol himself cited the 2006 World Championships as the turning point in his career, when he realized he could compete at the highest level.
After a photo-op in which Gasol held up his new #33 jersey (Mike Miller’s old number), he took some more informal questions. Asked about potentially taking less money to come to the NBA this season than he could have gotten in Spain, Gasol said his desire to play in the NBA won out. That may well be true, but I’ll add my own non-P.C. addendum: If he becomes the kind of player everyone seems to think he can, Gasol’s real NBA money will come on his second contract, so the sooner he can get his first NBA contract behind him the better off he’ll be in the long run.
I asked Gasol about an ESPN magazine story in which Pau said he was leaving his downtown Memphis condo (and custom-made bed) for his little brother. Gasol allowed that that was true, but maybe only in the short-term. “Once my girlfriend makes it over, she’ll decide if that’s an okay place to live,” Gasol said. “You know how that goes.”
Gasol flew into Memphis last night and is heading back out again tonight to return to his Spanish national team for Olympic preparation. He did have time to meet teammate Mike Conley, with whom he’s sure to work many, many high pick-and-roll plays next season, and Wallace was hopeful Gasol would get to meet with other future teammates today before heading to the airport.
Practice Notes:
Before the Gasol presser, I slipped onto the practice court to catch the end of this morning’s summer practice session. Media didn’t get to see quite as much live action today as yesterday, but it was interesting to see Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo matched up against each other on opposite scrimmage squads for a few possessions.
In these sequences, Mayo used his superior size to back Conley down and score in the paint. On the other end, however, Conley blew by Mayo (and anyone else in his way) to get into the paint on every possession I saw, usually dropping the ball off the teammates for point-blank looks. In these brief early flashes, Conley is looking terrific.
I had a chance to talk to Conley for a few minutes after practice. He talked about working with new assistant coach Kevin O’Neill, who traveled to work with Conley at Ohio State earlier this summer. Conley laughed when he described O’Neill as “very intense” and someone who “picks up on every mistake.” He did say that O’Neill is spearheading a more aggressive but more conventional defensive approach, picking up opponents full court and now forcing opponents to the baseline instead of to the middle, which was the approach last season. Conley allowed that this change in approach was probably more intuitive, because that’s the way he was coached dating back to high school.
Conley was sporting a blue “Let It Fly” wristband he said was given to him by Mike Miller after his shooting improved last season. “I’m keeping the memory of Mike alive,” he said.
Talking about his shooting, Conley said he was trying to build on his strong late-season play from his rookie year and had been corresponding with shooting coach Mark Price, with whom he hopes to meet in Atlanta before the season starts.
We talked a little bit about adjusting to the longer NBA three-point line last season, and Conley made an interesting point, saying that the adjustment helped his shooting by forcing him to use his legs more on his shot instead of relying on his upper-body the way he did with the shorter distances in high school and college.
Speaking of his upper body, Conley said that building up his body has gone along with defense and shooting as his off-season priorities, the difference in his build very apparent in these practice sessions. After a couple of injury issues last season, Conley said he felt it was important for him to add more muscle and strength to his upper body to absorb contact in the paint.
The Grizzlies’ two-day summer camp started today on the practice court at FedExForum as the team prepares to settle on a contingent of players to send to the Las Vegas Summer League later this week. Four names certain to be on the summer roster are second-year guards Mike Conley and Javaris Crittenton and rookies O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur. The rest of the hopefuls in camp today — aside from Senegalese big man Malick Badiane, whose rights the Grizzlies own from a trade last season — were young free agents hoping to land on a roster, among them several former college stars with some NBA experience, including: Oregon’s Luke Jackson, Kentucky’s Randolph Morris, Texas’ P.J. Tucker, and Michigan State’s Alan Anderson.
At last season’s summer camp, the first thing I noticed was how much bigger and more muscular Rudy Gay looked, something that carried over into a breakout sophomore season. Today, Conley’s physical transformation was even more eye-popping. His arms and shoulders look twice as thick and muscular as they did when the season ended in April and he doesn’t seem to have lost an ounce of quickness on the court.
Media got to watch the last half hour of practice, which was a rotating scrimmage among three sets of players. The players rotating on the first team were the four players under contract, Badiane, and Anderson, with Conley, Crittenton, and Mayo all getting looks at point guard.
The play was far too disjointed to pick up much of interest, with Conley really the only player to make plays strong enough to make my notebook: Skying over a group of bigs for a defensive rebound and later knocking down a corner three. On the downside, Mayo and Crittenton were both turnover-prone in transition, underscoring my already held belief that neither player is ready for full-time point-guard duty at the NBA level.
Assistant coaches Kevin O’Neill and Johnny Davis ran the practice, with head coach Marc Iavaroni, GM Chris Wallace, player personnel director Tony Barone, and Mayo’s agent, Leon Rose, watching from the sideline.
A few notes gleaned from conversations with various team insiders:
*Mayo apparently signed his rookie deal with the team this morning, with Arthur set to follow this afternoon. The team’s other rookie acquisition, Marc Gasol, is flying into town later today and is set to sign tomorrow before heading back to Spain for work with his national team in preparation for the Olympics.
*Antoine Walker’s physical went well and he’s amenable to playing for the team next season, though no decision has been made.
*There’s a chance the team could sit Conley, Mayo, and/or Crittenton for some of the Vegas games in order to provide more minutes in individual games to get all three looks at the point guard.
*Things continue to move slowly on the free agent/trade front. Recent suggestions from the Denver media that the team is pursuing free agent small forward Yakhouba Diawara (which would be a very minor signing) were shrugged off (and I got the sense that there’s nothing pending there), while the ESPN.com report today of the team potentially acquiring former University of Memphis player and current Philadelphia 76er Rodney Carney was deemed unlikely.
I don't have time to read every post of every thread on the team's official message board, but I do try to keep tabs on it to see what die-hard fans are talking about. Perusing it tonight, I ran across a few issues I might be able to shed a little light on:
1. There a lot of outrage and umbrage on this thread about ESPN.com's Chad Ford's recent suggestion that Sixers unrestricted free-agent Andre Iguodala is "coveted" by Grizzlies.
I can say with some certainty that Iguodala was coveted by the Grizzlies. Back during the season, discussions with team decision-makers after the Pau Gasol trade gave me the strong impression that the restricted free-agent the team was most interested in was Iguodala, as opposed to other options such as Monta Ellis, Josh Smith, or Emeka Okafor. Even then, though, doubt was expressed over the ability to pry him from Philadelphia.
I think the acquisition of O.J. Mayo has changed all that. I haven't heard Iguodala's name or any other high-profile name mentioned since the draft. (One name I have heard mentioned as a subject of possible interest: Minnesota bruiser Craig Smith.) I suspect Ford's info is outdated, but perhaps he knows something I don't.
2.This thread asks whether the team's summer-league games will be televised locally (in addition to NBA-TV telecasts), as was the case last year.
According to a someone on the broadcast staff I corresponded with today, there is currently no plan for additional broadcasts. The team is, however, sending a videographer to Las Vegas and plans to provide daily video packages on the team's web site.
3.This thread weighs an optimistic Commercial Appeal story about post-draft ticket sales against a more tempered Chris Vernon report.
I spoke to a high-level team source Sunday and when I asked if the draft was having a big impact on ticket sales, he declined to characterize it as such, instead saying that the draft activity seemed to have "stopped the bleeding."
I was hoping to post a detailed offseason preview this week looking at all free-agent options and potential trade targets. But, I don’t have time for that and the Grizzlies are unlikely to be super-aggressive this summer altering a roster that’s already been radically changed. So, instead, I’ll go on the record with what I think would be the best path for the Grizzlies to take in the coming months. Hey, Chris Wallace, Michael Heisley, Tony Barone, and Marc Iavaroni: If you’re reading, here’s the blueprint:
For starters, I would enter this offseason guided by five principles/goals:
1. This team has eight key players under the age of 24, perhaps second only the Portland. I don’t want to add any more players quite that young.
2. I want to save a significant amount of this year’s cap space in order to maximize cap space next summer when Antoine Walker’s $9.3 million contract and most of Greg Buckner’s money comes off the books.
3. Discounting Buckner, all five guards on the current roster are ball-handlers. I’d like to jettison one or two of these players and replace them with perimeter players whose strengths lie in other areas — namely defense and/or shooting.
4. I’d like to add a somewhat experienced frontcourt player who is a rebounder/enforcer, possibly someone who could start at power forward.
5. Ultimately, I want to add a couple of young veteran contributors who can ease the burden on the team’s rookies and second-year players but still potentially be a part of the long-range plan. I also want to add an older veteran or two on a one-year contract to add some experience to the locker room.
With these five principles as my guide, here’s the kind of offseason I’d like to see the Grizzlies have:
Step One: Trade for a frontcourt player.
Disliking the realistic options in free agency, I’d pursue my frontcourt addition via trade. Using some combination of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, and Hakim Warrick as trade bait, I’d try to acquire a rebounding power forward who could potentially start while Darrell Arthur gets used to the NBA game or until a better option presents itself via the draft, trade, or free agency next summer.
My preferred target:Anderson Varejao. My offer:Lowry (or Crittenton) and Warrick for Varejao
Anderson Varejao: A young banger with playoff experience.
The Grizzlies were interested in Varejao last off-season as a restricted free agent, but ultimately decided not to sign an offer sheet based on the assumption that the Cavaliers would match. The Cavs played hardball with Varejao and he held out half the year. The result was his least effective season, but he still had an excellent rebound rate and is still the same player he was before: A 6’10”, 240-pounder who is a high-level rebounder and energy guy who can ably defend the best post players. He’s a vet with playoff experience but is still only 25 years old.
Why does Cleveland do this deal? Well, the relationship between Varejao and the team is apparently strained and he is reportedly on the block. Warrick would be an offensive upgrade at power forward for a team that needs scoring options other than Lebron James. Lowry would significantly upgrade the Cav’s defense at the point. The Cavs have four players on the roster who can play the point, but the situation isn’t nearly as crowded as it seems: Eric Snow and Damon Jones are on the last year’s on their deals and are past the point of being reliable contributors. Daniel Gibson is essentially a spot-up shooter. Delonte West is a combo guard who will see a lot of time at the two. So, I think Lowry would play a significant role for the Cavs. Additionally, the Cavs would save $2.5 in salary, or $5 million in real dollars since Cleveland is significantly over the luxury tax. Maybe Cleveland could get better offers, but this would be a good one.
Back-up plans:David Lee of the Knicks, potentially for the same package (though I suspect the Knicks would want Conley) … Josh Boone of the Nets (A promising banger who played with Rudy Gay at UCONN. New Jersey’s frontcourt is overloaded. I’d offer Lowry or Crittenton for Boone and a future second-rounder.) … Minnesota’s Craig Smith (the best affordable free-agent target) … Denver’s Linus Kleiza (for Lowry, though I’m told Denver wouldn’t do this) … Ronny Turiaf could be a free-agent option, but I don’t seen outbidding the Lakers for a reasonable price.
Step Two: Sign a rotation-quality perimeter player.
Here, I’d look for someone who is 24-27 years old, can play the two and three, and can defend and hit a three. And also be had for under the mid-level. This is difficult since, for lower-level free agents, the Grizzlies cap room isn’t much of a competitive advantage. Being well under the luxury tax may be, however.
My preferred target:Kelenna Azubuike My offer: Azubuike made less than $700,000 last year, so I’m not sure how much he’s going to command on the open market. I’d offer him slightly above market value on a two- or three-year deal and use my cap space to frontload the deal, thus preserving more cap space next summer. Something like a three-year, $7-8 million deal, with descending yearly salaries.
Kelenna Azubuike: Low-cost free agent sleeper?
Azubuike may be the only player out there who fits all of my criteria. A former D-league vet who found a home in Golden State, Azubuike is 24 years old, a solid 6’5”, 220 pounds, and an excellent athlete. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter. His weakness is his ball handling and ability to create off the dribble, but that’s fine because we’re only looking for catch-and-shoot/catch-and-finish types anyway. He’s a little small for the three, but strong enough to pull it off and should continue to evolve into a strong defender.
Other potential targets: Azubuike’s Golden State teammate, Mickael Pietrus (26), would be an even better bet to fill all those roles, but I suspect he’d be asking for more money than I’d want to spend. … Kareem Rush (27) could be beaten out of a job in Indiana by his little brother Brandon. He’s a career 36-percent three-point shooter with good size. Wouldn’t pay much more than the minimum, with only one year guaranteed. … Marc Iavaroni coached James Jones(27) in Phoenix. The 6’8” small forward can’t defend or player multiple positions, but he would add a needed back-up small forward and is an excellent three-point shooter(40% on his career, 44% last season). For a couple of years, front-loaded, for reasonable money, would be worth a look. … Quinton Ross (27) doesn’t have much of an offensive game, but is a quality defender and also, apparently, Darrell Arthur’s cousin. … I wouldn’t pay much more than the minimum for Denver’s Yakouba Diawara (25), but he’s a 6’7” swingman with good defensive skills and an improving three-point shot. Could be worth a flyer. … With J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker acquired on draft-day, the Celtics may let Tony Allen (26) walk. I’d consider him, but I’m not crazy about him … Maurice Evans (29) is a little older than I’d like for a multi-year deal, but he’s physical, can hit a three, and could be getting pushed out of Orlando by Courtney Lee. Worth a look.
Step Three: Fill out the roster with a couple of veterans on one-year, minimum contracts.
A lot of vets looking for minimum deals want to latch onto contenders, not young, rebuilding teams. So, the Grizzlies might want to look at guys really nearing the end or with local/regional ties who would understand their roles and provide guidance to the kids.
Possible frontcourt targets:Lorenzen Wright (Looks about done even though he’s just 32. But, he cares about the city and, presumably, the franchise, probably has a relationship of some sort with Marc Gasol, and would probably like to finish his career in Memphis. I’m no huge Wright fan or Tiger homer, but I don’t think bringing him back for one year on the vet’s minimum would be such a bad thing.) … Adonal Foyle (physical presence and A+ personality. Maybe worth more than the minimum for one year) … Jake Voskuhl (Eric Hasseltine look-a-like spent time in Phoenix with Iavaroni) … Devean George (liable to get better offers) … Michael Doleac (size and shooting at the end of the bench).
Possible backcourt targets:Lindsey Hunter (at 37, could finally be done in Detroit. Jackson State grad could end his career close to home) … Damon Stoudamire (would he want to come back and ride the bench this time for the minimum? Does he owe it to Heisley for his final payday and giving him a shot with the Spurs last season?) … Kevin Ollie (at 35, can he still survive in brief bursts?)
Varejao has a player option for $6.2 million next season, which is a pretty reasonable number. If he takes it, that’s only $1.2 million more than Lowry and Warrick would be owed. If Azubuike’s second-year salary is around $3 million (or less), the team has only added around $4 to next year’s cap. The Grizzlies would still possibly have eight-figure cap room in ’09. If Varejao opted out and didn’t resign, so be it: Even more cap room to secure a replacement.
The upshot is that you've added a couple of young veterans with defensive ability and playoff experience to ease the pressure on the rookies and second-year players. This would go a long way toward helping next year's team be competitive without derailing the long-range plan.
Note: This column appears in the July 3rd print edition of the Memphis Flyer.
Demolition: Complete
On draft day, Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace finished what he started with the Pau Gasol trade.
Now that the dust has settled on last week’s NBA draft, longtime Grizzlies fans could be forgiven for not recognizing their team.
The dismantling of a team that suffered through three consecutive playoff sweeps from 2004-2006 began at the ’06 draft, when Jerry West wisely jettisoned local object of worship Shane Battier to bet on the all-star upside of incoming rookie Rudy Gay. The process followed the next summer when the team selected Mike Conley with the fourth pick, adding some need oomph to a point-guard core that had included stale veterans Damon Stoudamire, Chucky Atkins, and Bobby Jackson.
But, this February, new general manager Chris Wallace decided to accelerate the process, wiping the $48 million owed to franchise centerpiece Pau Gasol off the books in exchange for two prospects (rookie guard Javaris Crittenton and Gasol’s rapidly improving little brother, Marc Gasol), two picks, and financial freedom. The deal was wildly ridiculed at the time, but as Pau’s mammoth contract increases and the Grizzlies acquisitions mature over the next three seasons, I suspect the verdict on the deal will change.
The demolition was completed last week, when Wallace paired holdover Mike Miller with the team’s #5 pick to acquire the third-rated player in the draft: USC guard O.J. Mayo, a player widely compared to such current NBA stars as Dwyane Wade, Chauncey Billups, and Brandon Roy. As a bonus, the #28 pick acquired from the Lakers for Gasol turned into Darrell Arthur, the Kansas power forward that dominated the University of Memphis frontline in the college national championship game and slid in the draft based on erroneous reports of a kidney ailment. The Grizzlies had Arthur rated as the 11th best prospect in the draft.
So, little more than a year after taking charge of a capped-out loser lead by a core duo of well-compensated and pushing-30 post-season underachievers in Gasol and Miller, the much-maligned Wallace has completely remade the Grizzlies. The lone holdover from the final playoff run is forward Hakim Warrick: senior Grizzly at age 25.
Wallace claimed after the draft that his team now has as good a collection of young talent as any in the league, and the facts bear him out. Barring trades, the Grizzlies are likely to go into next season with the following players all potentially in the rotation: Conley (age 20), Crittenton (20), Mayo (20), Arthur (20), Gay (21), Kyle Lowry (22), Darko Milicic (23), and Marc Gasol (23).
That’s eight core contributors age 23 and under. The only other team in the NBA that boasts a collection of young talent as deep and (okay, more) promising is the Portland Trailblazers. No other team really comes close, with the Bulls, Hawks, Warriors, and Timberwolves all having four significant under-23 players on their roster.
It’s the deepest and potentially best collection of talent in franchise history, a group bursting with athleticism, upside, and the ability to impact the game at both ends of the floor. The team also has money to spend right now and potentially much more in 2009 if they refrain from long-term free-agent contracts this summer (as I would expect).
But there are also important qualities this assemblage lacks: Experience, proven commodities, a balance of skills. All of the team’s guards are used to handling the ball, not playing without it. None of the team’s power forwards are proven, well, power players. There is clearly work yet to be done. A final product won’t take the floor until at least the fall of 2009.
Unless the Grizzlies sign Methuselah in free agency, this is likely to rival Portland as the youngest team in the league, and without the experience playing together Portland’s core got a year ago. And, typically, very young teams in the NBA lose — in bunches.
It would be helpful to think of this year’s Grizzlies as an unusually promising expansion squad: Year One of a brand-new team. But, with back-to-back 22-win seasons having followed three straight playoff sweeps, does this fan base have the patience for growing pains? Can the palpable and desperately needed post-draft excitement generated by the Mayo acquisition survive the certain-to-be-rough early patches these Baby Grizzlies are going to face? For that matter, can owner Michael Heisley — astutely preaching a long-term plan focused on eventually winning big — accept the bumps along the way? Can coach Marc Iavaroni, already seemingly on shaky ground, survive a bad start?
Those questions won’t begin to be answered until November. Until then, Grizzlies fans can bask in something that’s been in too-short supply over the past few seasons: Hope.
Came across this quote while researching for a couple of different things. From a DraftExpress.com profile of O.J. Mayo's pre-draft workouts at Tim Grover's gym in Chicago.
Mike Procopio was helping organize Mayo's workout regimen and has worked with Dwyane Wade and Paul Pierce, among others. He's a Chris Wallace confidant who was apparently pushing for Wallace to pursue Mayo in the draft.
Quote:
“He pushes himself as much as any player I’ve seen” Mike Procopio noted. I’ve never seen a guy who is more focused than him. I feel bad for the guys who will have to work out against him. He reminds me of Clubber Lang [played by Mr. T] in Rocky 3 with the way he trained for that fight against Rocky. Rocky was in the disco having fun, and Clubber Lang was in some hole in the wall doing chin-ups. The guy is a nut when it comes to working out. You can see it in his eyes, he wants to be great. He’ll spend all day doing something until he gets it right. The kid cannot fail. He will not fail. He’s fearless. Some kids listen to the crowd around them, who tell them how good they are. They live on the hype. They live off the rankings of the scouting services around the country. He doesn’t. He wants to rip your heart out, serve it to you on a plate, and then do it again. The kid is a killer, he’s a total killer on the court. He’ll be a special player.”
Now that the rush and weariness of draft day has passed, time to pick through the aftermath and look ahead. Here's my mammoth breakdown of where things stand as the Grizzlies embark on the off-season:
Does this trade make the Grizzlies better in the short term?
Maybe not. The Grizzlies lose the only solid veteran on the roster in Mike Miller and the trade leaves the roster out of balance and potentially lacking a lot of important qualities that adding Kevin Love would have provided — toughness, rebounding, a great pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop partner for Mike Conley, someone to start the break, etc.
Despite going fifth in the draft and being traded to the team picking third, which coveted him, I tend to think Kevin Love was undervalued heading into the draft. He fits the superficial model of the classic college basketball star whose game doesn’t translate — fundamentally sound and personable media star who lacks great size or athleticism. (See: Adam Morrison, Danny Ferry, Mateen Cleaves, J.J. Reddick, and, next year, Tyler Hansborough.) But, over the course of the season, I came to believe that Love was the exception. I don’t think he was the best prospect in this draft, like Jeffrey Ma does, or the second-best, like John Hollinger. But I did have Love ranked 4th on my final draft board, just below O.J. Mayo. And Love was the better fit on the draft-day roster.
Oh, Love Train, we hardly knew ye. But we'll happily take Mayo instead.
I think the Grizzlies would have won more games this season without making the trade. But this year’s Grizzlies team wasn’t going to make the playoffs either way, so games won this season isn’t what’s important . . .
What about long term?
This is what really matters. Seen through that prism, the trade essentially comes down to who becomes the better player, Mayo or Love? The Grizzlies aren’t at the point where they’re trying to put the finishing touches on a team primed to contend. They are, instead, still putting together core pieces to build a contender around. Rudy Gay is one of those pieces. This week, the Grizzlies placed a bet that Mayo could rival or surpass Gay as the alpha dog on an eventual title contender.
That contention is probably three years away, so the loss of Miller (29 years old with two years left on his contract) and the addition of some short-term dead weight at the back end of the roster aren’t particularly important. All that matters is Mayo’s star potential, which is immense. I had Mayo rated third in the draft, as did the Grizzlies and most of the league, but he’s got a higher ceiling than Love, an upside that probably matches that of Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley.
Mayo was considered the best player in his class throughout high school, dropping a few spots when he struggled early on in his transition to college ball. The second half of the season, though, he was probably as productive as anyone else in college hoops. The “next Lebron” hype he had coming out of high school was a bit much, but he gives every indication he can become a dynamic combo guard at the next level. Among the current NBA players Mayo’s game resembles are Dwyane Wade, Chauncey Billups, Brandon Roy, and Jamal Crawford. The Grizzlies certainly hope Mayo becomes a better pro than Crawford, and Wade may be a little bit too wishful, but if Mayo develops into a player along the lines of Roy or Billups, this will end up being a great deal for the Grizzlies.
O.J. Mayo: The Next Brandon Roy or Chauncey Billups?
Is there any downside if Mayo does reach his potential?
There is one thing that nags at me. Mayo is such a high-level star personality that if his game evolves to match his Q Factor, I worry he could try to force his way to a bigger market after his rookie contract ends. This is what happened to Orlando with Shaquille O’Neal. It’s what Cleveland is petrified of now with Lebron James.
Teams that thrive in smaller markets have tended to do so, in recent years, with stars that are more modest off-court personalities; guys that seem to be content out of the limelight: Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Deron Williams in Utah, the up-and-coming Brandon Roy/Greg Oden duo in Portland. I think Kevin Love, who happily came to do a competitive workout in Memphis and seemed unfazed at the prospect of being drafted to Memphis (or Minnesota), fits this template pretty well. I’m not sure about Mayo.
What about the other players coming over from Minnesota?
In the words of the goofy dude who hosts my three-and-a-half year old’s kid-show fave Yo Gabba Gabba: Let’s do it. Break it down:
Antoine Walker: ’Toine is a compelling, entertaining personality, but not always a productive one, and his game has significantly diminished over the years. You have to wonder at this point if his on-court contribution would be offset by potential locker-room problems.
Don't be surprised if ’Toine dons Beale Street Blue
That said, don’t be surprised if Walker suits up for the Grizzlies next season. I was told on draft night that he would be bought out, but this weekend I’m hearing that may not be the case. The Grizzlies will bring in Walker next week for a physical and a meeting to help determine his future with the team.
Remember that Walker and Chris Wallace have a bit of a history, when Wallace was the general manager in Boston and Walker was Paul Pierce’s sidekick on a team that made the Eastern Conference finals. That relationship could factor here. An even more important factor is Walker’s $9.3 million expiring contract. (He has a team option for 2009-2010 that neither the Grizzlies nor any other team would pick up.) If the Grizzlies were to buy Walker out before the season, the savings would be minimal. If they keep him on the roster, not only is there the possibility of getting on-court value, but the team would retain his large expiring as a potential trade chip as well as his rights as a potential sign-and-trade commodity next summer. It may well be that using Walker’s contract in either of those ways is a long shot, but as long as you have to pay him anyway, why not keep your options open.
Now, if Walker does suit up, what kind of contributor could he be? Walker may not be as ancient as you think: He turns 32 this summer, though there is a lot of wear-and-tear and he doesn’t seem to have stayed in peak conditioning. Walker has long been a very skilled player — small forward skills in a power forward package. But he’s been an increasingly inefficient player over the past several seasons — turnover-prone and overly reliant on his inconsistent three-point shooting.
Walker was a part-time player last season and ended up shooting a dreadful 36% from the floor. Walker hasn’t been a serviceable contributor since the 2005-2006 season and I’d be surprised if that changes. At 32, however, it’s probably too early to completely write him off. He may get another shot with the Grizzlies this season.
Marko Jaric: Jaric is a versatile player whose combination of size (6’7”) and ball skills enable him to play all three perimeter positions. Owed $21.3 million over the next three seasons, he brings with him a contract slightly worse than Brian Cardinals, but he’s a significantly more useful basketball player.
Marko Jaric: Money better wasted than Brian Cardinal
Jaric rebounded from a particularly bad 07-08 campaign to average more than 29 minutes per game in 75 appearances for the Wolves last season, averaging 8 points, 3 boards, and 4 assists per game. He shot a solid 36% from three-point range, a couple of ticks over his 34% career shooting. Jaric is not a great defender, but with his size and decent athleticism, he’s far from a liability. He has good hands and tends to have very high steal rates. Essentially, Jaric performed like a pretty decent 7th-to- 9th man, which could be the role he plays for the Grizzlies next season.
On the downside, Jaric will turn 30 just before the start of the season and is moving from one losing/rebuilding team to another, which is probably not what he envisioned for this stage of his career, so you have to wonder how motivated he will be. Regardless, with his onerous contract, expect him to be in a Grizzlies uniform when the season starts.
Greg Buckner: Buckner will be 32 entering the season and has limited and diminishing skills. A 6’4” swingman, he’s probably one of the least productive offensive players in the league for that position. What he does bring is toughness and decent athleticism, which makes him a serviceable defender and rebounder. Those traits may garner him some spot minutes in Beale Street Blue next season, but don’t expect to see Buckner on the court much.
Greg Buckner will provide short-term toughness off the bench.
The good news with Buckner is that the three years remaining on his contract are not fully guaranteed. The Grizzlies will owe Buckner $3.8 million this season. But only $1 million of the $4 million on his deal for 2009-2010 is guaranteed. Look for the Grizzlies to eat the $1 million and set him free.
What are the cap implications?
This is really hard to determine because of the number of uncertain factors: The exact salary slots of O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur, the specific numbers of Marc Gasol’s likely contract (likely to be in the ballpark of the reported three-year, $10 million deal), and, most importantly, where the cap is going to be set for the coming season.
The general answer seems to be that the Mayo trade opened up an additional $1.5 million or so in cap room this season and perhaps more than $8 million more than expected next season, with the hit coming in 2010-2011, when the team is still on the hook for $7.6 million to Marko Jaric. Buckner’s partial guarantee seems to make this deal a financial benefit for the Grizzlies overall, though the third year on Jaric’s deal adds on some dead weight at the back end the team didn’t previously have. The deal seems to set up the summer of 2009 as a prime free-agent period for the team. More on that later.
What does this draft day say about he ownership/management/coaching situation?
A few things:
1. That rampant national reports that the team is more concerned about finances than building a winner simply isn’t true. Finances are certainly an issue with a team losing money (more on this in a later post), but the Grizzlies made a bold draft-day move that while essentially a push overall financially, added a longer-term “bad” contract than was given up.
2. That Michael Heisley’s more hands-on approach to running the team is a mixed blessing.
Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley took on a bigger role in the team's draft-day proceedings than he was accustomed to. By most accounts, he didn't lose his cool and instead served as a calming influence in the war room.
Wow. I don’t know whom Tillery was getting his accounts from, but I heard from different sources that Heisley absolutely did lose his cool and was anything but a calming influence. I mean, Heisley himself all but admitted the contentious nature of the team’s deliberations at Friday’s press conference, using the words “tense” and “verbal” to describe the in-house mood.
On the other hand, “by most accounts,” Heisley also deserves some credit for what ended up being a very good draft. My understanding is that Heisley’s aggressive insistence on getting the best player out of the draft he could was a key in making things happen. So kudos for that.
The big guy's enhanced involvement: A mixed blessing.
Heisley remains a blunt force whose management skills don’t seem to be quite as well suited to running a professional sports franchise as they are to his other, less people- and P.R.-oriented businesses, but he continues to express a newfound astuteness about patient but aggressive team-building that was lacking during the Jerry West era.
3. That Chris Wallace isn’t gunshy in the wake of the immense and often unwarranted criticism he got for the Pau Gasol trade. He continues to rebuild this team aggressively. Wallace inherited a capped-out loser built around proven playoff underachievers Gasol and Mike Miller. In short order, he’s turned the team into a promising collection of young talent built around the exciting perimeter trio of Rudy Gay (a Jerry West parting gift), O.J. Mayo, and Mike Conley, with cap room available over the next two summers and other young assets rapidly accumulating. Know-nothing national scribes can continue taking lazy, gratuitous cheap shots at him, but there’s more hope among local Grizzlies fans right now than there’s been in the past couple of seasons.
You can call him Big Poppa: Chris Wallace shaking the haters off.
4. That Marc Iavaroni is increasingly and worryingly becoming a void in the middle of team operations. Iavaroni was left dangling this summer by Heisley and then seemingly had a new, defensive-oriented assistant in Kevin O’Neil foist on him (the real story behind the O’Neil hire still hasn’t come out — I don’t know for certain who pushed for it). I’d heard on draft night (er, morning) and again the next day, that Iavaroni was arguing against the Mayo deal, but then Heisley went on the record with Iavaroni’s discontent to Commercial Appeal columnist Geoff Calkins after the Friday morning press conference, contradicting Iavaroni’s good-soldier comments from the dais only minutes before.
Marc Iavaroni's charge: Make it Work
For what it’s worth, I don’t think Iavaroni’s resistance to the trade is much to be concerned about. The Grizzlies had focused on Love as the likely pick at #5 for a while and, as a coach, Iavaroni had no doubt thought a lot about how he planned to use his new frontcourt toy. To have that taken from him and a radically different kind of team laid at his feet — one without veteran security blanket Miller — had to throw him for a bit of a loop.
I’m rooting hard for Iavaroni to survive and thrive as the Grizzlies coach, but I’m worried about it. I fear a slow start could mean yet another in-season coaching change, a fourth in the team’s still-brief Memphis tenure.
How big of a steal was Darrell Arthur?
If the alleged kidney issue really is a non-factor, as it is by all accounts, he could be a huge steal. The Grizzlies had Arthur rated #11 on their draft board, and I think that’s about right. He worked out very well for the team, against LSU’s Anthony Randolph, and has proven his mettle in big games, as witnessed by his dominant performance against the University of Memphis in the NCAA title game.
Darrell Arthur: Steal of the Draft?
Arthur isn’t a physical monster, but should be more of a factor defensively and on the boards than incumbent power forward Hakim Warrick. He’s also an excellent open-court athlete with a well-rounded offensive game. I don’t think Arthur will ever play in an all-star game, but he has the ability to be a quality starter in the league and should play right away.
What’s the roster look like heading into the summer?
Assuming Antoine Walker isn’t bought out and Marc Gasol is signed, the Grizzlies head into the summer with 12 players under contract, neatly dispersed around the lineup:
PG – Mike Conley/Kyle Lowry
SG – O.J. Mayo/Marko Jaric/Javaris Crittenton
SF – Rudy Gay/Greg Buckner
PF – Hakim Warrick/Darrell Arthur/Antoine Walker
C – Darko Milicic/Marc Gasol
Can Conley/Mayo/Gay thrive together along the perimeter?
That’s the biggest question for the team going forward. Rudy Gay should be fine and isn’t going anywhere, but can Conley and Mayo — who both seemingly need to ball to be effective — play well together in the backcourt? Is Mayo ultimately a better fit at point guard?
There’s been some suggestion that Conley could be dealt before the season, but my own opinion is that the team should give this trio a chance to work together on the court first. Even if it’s decided that Mayo and Conley can’t coexist, Conley making a significant leap from his rookie to sophomore season, which is what I’m expecting, should only increase his trade value.
Can Mike Conley make the leap while sharing the ball?
There are some models for this extreme perimeter focus: The Tim Hardaway-Mitch Richmond-Chris Mullin Golden State teams (dubbed Run-TMC) of the ’80s were highly entertaining and moderately successful. More recently, the Milwaukee Bucks made it to the Eastern Conference finals lead by the perimeter trio of Sam Cassell-Ray Allen-Glenn Robinson. Then again, neither of those teams paired true playmaking guards in the backcourt the way the Grizzlies are proposing to do with Mayo and Conley. (There’s already a fan movement afoot to dub the Grizzlies’ trio “Run-GMC.”)
RU-DEE: Running the anchor leg for a basketball track squad
This issue is more pronounced, however, when the Grizzlies look to the bench, where all three backup guards — Lowry, Crittenton, and Jaric — are ball-handling guards. Essentially, all five guards on the Grizzlies roster are players with at least pretensions of playing point guard. The team would be advised to replace a couple of these ball-handing guards with players whose skills are focused in other areas, namely defending and shooting. If someone is dealt this summer, the bet here is Lowry is the most likely to go.
Does this team have enough toughness and scoring on the interior?
Probably not. Darko Milicic showed in spurts last season he can be a defensive and rebounding anchor, but he’s yet to show any consistency. Hakim Warrick is almost entirely an offensive player, but not a presence on the block. Marc Gasol and Darrell Arthur have yet to play an NBA game, but both project to be, primarily, secondary offensive threats. The thought here is that the Grizzlies would be better off replacing Warrick with more of a rebounder/enforcer type at power forward and letting Arthur develop behind this player.
Darko: Toughness and consistency desperately needed
What’s next?
There are three potential paths for the Grizzlies this off-season — major overhaul, minor tweaking, and minimal tweaking.
Major overall would entail trading Conley and/or pursuing a mammoth free agent (with Atlanta’s Josh Smith and Charlotte’s Emeka Okafor as likely targets).
Minor overall would entail dealing one or two of the team’s back-up guards, possibly along with Warrick, to balance out the roster, and then pursuing a young, low-cost free-agent or two to plug holes.
Minimal tweaking would entail maybe dealing one of the excess ball-handling guards to add a role player with different skills and restricting free-agent signings to one-year deals to preserve cap space for next summer.
As much as I liked the boldness of draft day, I think the major movement is both unlikely and probably unwise at this point. Instead, the decision will be made between minor and minimal tweaking. The Grizzlies could go into free agency looking to sign some very useful second-tier role players (a couple of possibilities: Minnesota’s Craig Smith and Golden State’s Kelenna Azubuike), but if it takes multi-year deals to do so, is it really worth it to take cap space away from next summer, which is the team’s best shot to use cap space to make significant additions?
Instead, look for the team to tweak the roster with a minor trade and to maybe overpay a useful free agent on a one-year deal (another idea: former Suns sniper James Jones). This year is more about development and evalution than about putting the final touches on the roster.
The final verdict?
The Grizzlies’ draft-day haul has generated much-needed excitement among the fan base and has provided the team with a core of young talent that’s the most promising in franchise history. The work to build the fan-base back up will still be arduous and this draft has, at best, probably merely stopped the bleeding. But I’m more optimistic about the team’s future now than I have been since early in the Jerry West tenure.
