An Early Look at the Draft: Pick #28.
Tuesday night, we’ll find out where the Grizzlies will draft in the lottery. But we already know where the team will pick later in the first round, selecting 28th with a pick acquired from the Lakers in the Pau Gasol trade.
Here’s an early look at some of the players who could be available and might be considered with that pick. After each player’s name, in parenthesis, are each player’s current rankings in Chad Ford’s Top 100 rankings, DraftExpress.com’s mock draft, and NBADraft.net’s mock draft.
Probably not available:
Each of these players is individually projected to go earlier than the Grizzlies’ pick at #28, but I think there’s a chance that one or two of these players could slide down toward the end of the first round, so I’m including them here, in rough order of preference.
Robin Lopez (21, 25, 18): Legit seven-footer — very active defensively and an excellent shot-blocker. Though his reputation was as the primary rebounder on that Stanford team, he actually rebounded at a considerably lower rate than brother Brook. May be as likely to move into the late lottery as he is to fall to 28. Looks like an elite backup center or a nice role-player starter.
Brandon Rush (20, 24, 25): I like Rush a lot as a quality mid-rotation guy, but Kansas’ title run probably puts the kibosh on him sliding to the Griz. A good-not-great athlete with solid size for the wing. Not a Mike-Miller-level pure shooter, but has NBA range and can knock down open shots; shot over 40% from college three each year at Kansas. Not a great creator off the dribble, but can handle and pass in traffic. Some injury issues in his past — ACL and elbow — but doesn’t seem to be a big issue.
Nicolas Batum (23, 15, 10): Long, explosive wing player who looked awesome at the Nike Hoop Summit here last spring, but apparently hasn’t made the kind of leap in the French league this season that scouts were hoping for and there seem to questions about his focus and dedication. Still, he’s a 6’8” super athlete who seems to be able to handle, shoot, and defend. And he’s only 19. His stock seems to have slipped. If it slipped all the way to 28, I’d be all over him. Haven’t heard any concerns about getting him over next season.
Kosta Koufos (15, 13, 21): Finesse seven-footer who’s about as pure a shooter at that size as you’ll see. Also seems to have decent agility and a good handle: He can face up and use the dribble. On the downside, super-thin and needs to get much stronger to play in the post or make any kind of impact defensively or on the boards. Seems to be zooming up the draft rankings.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (22, 19, 22): It seems like I can’t have a hoops conversation these days without someone floating the Tayshaun Prince comparison in reference to Douglas-Roberts, and I do not get it. They’re both lanky, light-skinned dudes, and Douglas-Roberts looks like he’ll probably be drafted around the same late-teens area that Prince was. But, Prince is 2-3 inches taller with pterodactyl arms that Douglas-Roberts doesn’t seem to have. Prince was a defender who had to develop his offense. Douglas-Roberts is a crafty scorer at the college level with question marks about his defensive ability. They are very different players. Honestly, I’ve never been able to get a good feel for how CDR’s (can’t hold out on the initials any longer) game will translate. He’s an unconventional, herky-jerky scorer, but not a great athlete, pure shooter, or creative playmaker. Can he become a poor-man’s George Gervin at the next level? Sure. Could he flame out completely? Yep. If he slips to 28 (and I wouldn’t rule it out), the Grizzlies would almost have to take him, but he doesn’t really fill a need.
Joe Alexander (19, 23, 13): I never got around the seeing Alexander play, but he seems like an interesting prospect for the Grizzlies, who could use another true small forward on the roster. I’ve heard some concern that his breakout season could have been a bit of a mirage. Looking at the numbers and some scouting reports, it seems to me like Alexander is neither a three-point shooter or lockdown defender. I have a hard time seeing the Grizzlies select a wing player who can’t fit either of those roles.
Potential draftees I’ve seen:
Omri Casspi (53, 36, NA): Casspi caught my eye at last year’s Hoop Summit because he played harder than everyone else and appears to have followed that up with some strong play for Euroleague powerhouse Maccabi Tel Aviv as a mere 19-year-old this season. Grizzlies could use another true small forward and could also use more toughness. Casspi would provide both. Does he have the athleticism and skill-level to thrive in the NBA? Will he be ready next season? Those questions remain to be answered.
Kyle Weaver (62, 45, 31): I happened to catch Weaver a few times last season while scouting higher-profile Pac-10 players and there’s a lot to like here. He’s a wiry 6’6” swingman with good, not great, athleticism. On the court, he’s got a lot of Battier in him — great feel for the game, defends, good passer and facilitator, rebounds in traffic. Has a pretty good handle and can create off the dribble. On the downside, while Weaver’s three-point percentage shot up to a respectable 36% last season, he’s an erratic shooter and even less of a scorer. As a four-year guy without much scoring ability, Weaver doesn’t have a lot of upside, but the Grizzlies need tough, defensive-minded role players, and Weaver could fill a niche. I expect the Grizzlies to take a look at Weaver for this pick.
Shan Foster (39, 37, 50): Foster is listed at 6’6” and shot over 40% from three-point range in three of four years at Vanderbilt, including an astounding 47% last year. The size and shooting combo has to make him a factor for the Griz. Questionable athletic markers suggest he could be a one-dimensional player at the next level, though.
Wayne Ellington (37, 41, 27): Since the Grizzlies put a premium on three-point shooting, Ellington, with his pure stroke and 40% college long-range shooting, will get a look, but I have my doubts. He’s listed at 6’5”, but doesn’t look it (we’ll see how he measures in Orlando), and even if his height checks out, he’s still very slight. His low block and steal totals suggest he may struggle athletically at the NBA level, so he probably won’t be a factor defensively.
Bill Walker (28, 38, 42): After two ACL injuries, Walker seems to be morphing from the Vince Carter-esque high-flyer he was as a prep into more of a Bonzi Wells-style power wing. There’s intriguing talent here, especially given the chance that Walker could still regain more of his former athleticism. And a physical player on the wings would fit a team need. That said, the combination of injury history and character question marks make Walker a longshot pick for the Griz. I haven’t detected much enthusiasm for him around the team.
Roy Hibbert (24, 20, 23): How’s this for a scenario: The ever-slipping Hibbert slides right on down to the Grizzlies at 28. With Darko in the fold, the hope of adding Marc Gasol, and the desire to play uptempo basketball, the team doesn’t really need him. But, Hibbert is a high-profile player who just so happens to be a product of Griz owner Michael Heisley’s alma mater, Georgetown. Would Heisley push for him? Let’s hope Hibbert gets the call earlier and it doesn’t come to that. I think Hibbert will stick in the League — he’s a big target with a soft touch — but I don’t think he fits with the Grizzlies.
Joey Dorsey (45, 45, 32): If there were a public referendum on the #28 pick, I suspect that Dorsey would win out, but I don’t think the Grizzlies will be that dumb and/or desperate. Sure, Dorsey could put everything together and be a Reggie Evans or even Ben Wallace type pro, but the odds against that are pretty long. There are lots of Wallace types out there. The ones that pan out bring consistent effort, they don’t disappear against subpar competition the way Dorsey did — for all the talk about what a dominant rebounder and defender Dorsey is, his production in those areas was merely good, not special, and that was against a bunch of kids several years his junior on a lot of nights. The Grizzlies also know better than most what a problem personality he is. I suspect the Grizzlies will know better than to set this guy up for a guaranteed contract. At least they’d better.
DJ White (30, 40. 33): White looked to me like a player who thrived on size and athleticism more than basketball skill in college, playing against a lot of subpar athletes in the Big 10. Those advantages will turn to disadvantages in the NBA and I’m not convinced White’s got the skill-level or physical tools to make up for it. We’ll see how he measures out in Orlando, but right now I’m not very high on him.
Mario Chalmers (31, 34, 24): Known and loathed by Tiger fans for obvious reasons. More to the point for the Grizzlies: Even though Chalmers' combination of defensive ability and outside shooting make him a worthy prospect at #28, this team doesn’t need more small guards unless the name Derrick Rose is attached.
Alexis Ajinca (33, 17, 30): Skinny but skilled French seven-footer. Looked so-so at the Hoop Summit a year ago. May not be ready to play or come over this year, which could make him a longshot for the Griz.
Potential draftees I haven’t seen:
Richard Hendrix (36, 29, 40): Strong, athletic wide-body (listed 6’9”, 260) who posted strong block and rebound numbers in the SEC. If you’re looking for a candidate to be this year’s Carl Landry or Paul Millsap, Hendrix could be the guy. He’ll get a strong look.
J.J. Hickson (25, 30, 32): Put up 15 and 9 on 59% shooting as a freshman in the ACC, which is impressive. That and what is apparently an strong athletic profile would seem to make him a candidate if he’s still on the board. Questions about his hoops IQ and limited skill set make him sound like a younger Alexander Johnson and we saw how well the coaching staff responded to him. Probably a longshot.
Serge Ibaka (29, NA, 21): From what I understand, Ibaka is a couple of years away from being able to make an NBA contribution and probably won’t come over next season. I don’t see the Griz taking a player to stash with this pick.
Jason Thompson (32, 26, 20): A four-year guy from a small school (Rider), but Thompson was a big-time producer there as a sophomore. Reportedly has an NBA body (6’11” with a big wingspan) and dominated on the boards and as a shot-blocker the way you’d expect a real pro prospect to against that competition. Whether he’s in the mix for the Grizzlies may depend on whether the team thinks it’ll be able to bring Marc Gasol over this summer.
Courtney Lee (34, 27, 37): Despite Western Kentucky’s tourney success, I never got a chance to watch Lee play. Listed at 6’5” and was a big-time scorer and 40% three-point shooter throughout his college career, with rebound, block, and steal numbers that suggest he has NBA athleticism. Seems to be a good all-around player, but may not be either the deadeye three-point threat or rugged defender the Grizzlies would like on the wing. He will definitely get a close look.
Ryan Anderson (42, 32, NA): Apparently an Austin Croshere-type player, Anderson shot 41% from three while averaging 21/10 as a sophomore in the Pac-10 last season. His offensive skill will be intriguing for the Grizzlies, though a relative lack of strength and athleticism suggest he could really struggle defensively. Should get a look.
Lester Hudson (52, 44, 35): Memphis native was a scoring machine at UT-Martin this season, pouring in nearly 26 points per game. His big-time rebound, assist, and steal totals also suggest he could have been an impact player at any college level. A little old at nearly 24. Would be a risky pick that wouldn’t address a need, but he’ll get a look.
J.R. Giddens (81, 38, 49): Former Kansas prospect who transferred to New Mexico. A power player from the wing who put up big rebound and block numbers as a 6’5” swingman. Supposedly a good long-range shooter, but hasn’t put up great percentages in college. Serious questions about his character, but seems to be moving up the charts and I’ve heard his name mentioned.
Sonny Weems (NA, 53, 45): If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, try this one: A West Memphis native with good size and athleticism for the wing and a decent outside stroke. Weems might have the raw tools to develop into a defensive stopper with offensive value. He finished his Arkansas career with an excellent performance in the tourney.
