Chasing the Beast

Kevin Love looked good yesterday, but staying put at # 5 still feels like it should be a back-up plan for the Grizzlies.

Plan A?

The suggestion continues that Miami could move the #2 pick – moving up, down, or out of the draft. Chad Ford discusses that here and here.

The first piece gives the following take on the Grizzlies situation:

Quote:

On the Grizzlies:
The team is rebuilding and is at a good spot at No. 5. But they also have assets that could net them a higher lottery pick.

If they were to offer Mike Miller and Kyle Lowry for the No. 2 pick, would the Heat bite? Maybe, if the Grizzlies were willing to take back Mark Blount or a combo of Marcus Banks and Udonis Haslem in return to make the numbers work.

The Commercial Appeal’s Geoff Calkins calls for a Michael Beasley bid in his column today.

A post on RealGM.com yesterday, citing The Miami Herald, touched on this with the following:

Quote:

While the Heat aren't discouraging trade offers for the second overall pick in this month's NBA draft, deals are unlikely with the Wolves or Sonics, according to The Miami Herald.

Aside from Al Jefferson (Minnesota) and Kevin Durant and Jeff Green (Seattle), neither of the teams have pieces that are attractive to Pat Riley and Miami.

"Memphis at No. 5 would be the best trade fit," a rival executive said, although O.J. Mayo, the team's projected target, might be gone.

So, let’s back-up and analyze the situation a little bit. Based on a combination of multiple media reports and informed conjecture, all of these things seem to be true:

1. Assuming Derrick Rose goes #1 to Chicago, Miami isn’t sold on Michael Beasley as their pick. They appear to be more interested in O.J. Mayo but would prefer to trade down to get him since Beasley is the consensus #2 pick.

2. Minnesota, at #3, and Seattle, at #4, don’t have the kind of tradable secondary assets Miami would covet in a deal to move down.

3. Memphis does have assets Miami likes and also has interest in moving up for Beasley, but Miami can’t deal with Memphis and be assured of getting Mayo with Minnesota and Seattle in the way.

4. Minnesota would probably take Beasley or Mayo at #3 based on value, but neither are perfect fits with the current roster (Mayo duplicates scoring combo/small guards Randy Foye and Rashad McCants; Beasley duplicates go-to post scorer Al Jefferson). Minnesota likes Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, and Danilo Gallinari and, like Miami, might be interested in trading down to take their guy.

If all those things are true, then one semi-complicated scenario seems to be the obvious solution to the needs and desires of the Heat, Wolves, and Grizzlies: A three-team deal involving all three lottery picks.

Miami would take Beasley at #2 for Memphis. Minnesota would secure Mayo at #3 for Miami. Memphis would take whomever the Timberwolves want at #5 to send to Minnesota. Both Miami and Minnesota would need added value for moving down and the Grizzlies would have to part with some extra value for moving up. The complication is that the Grizzlies would have to send assets to both teams. How much is too much for Beasley?

Miami would only be moving down one spot for a player they’d probably draft at #2 if need be, so the ransom might not be too high. Minnesota would be moving down two spots and into what is perceived to be a lower tier of prospects, so they might require more sweetener.

What would these teams most want? Would Miami want Kyle Lowry even after adding Mayo? Would they want Mike Miller to add a veteran shooter to play off their duo of penetrating guards? They would probably want the Grizzlies to take back a bad contract either way. I’m guessing the #28 pick alone wouldn’t be enough even to move back one spot.

What about Minnesota? It might depend on whom they’re taking at #5, though I doubt the rebuilding Wolves would insist on Miller. Would they want Lowry to add a true point guard to their backcourt rotation? If they were going for Lopez or Gallinari, would Hakim Warrick make some sense? Would moving up from the low 30s to #28 in the middle of the draft be considered good value?

Would either team be interested in the rights to Marc Gasol? Is Javaris Crittenton a factor? (Doubtful) Could you hold a deal this complicated up a week to include Juan Carlos Navarro in a sign-and-trade (presumably to Miami)?

There are probably a hundred scenarios to spin around the basic premise of the three-team pick swap. Here are a couple:

Scenario 1:
Griz send Navarro to Heat in sign-and-trade for Marcus Banks (3 years and $13 million left)
Griz send Kyle Lowry OR Hakim Warrick and #28 to Minnesota for Mark Madsen (2 years and $5.5 million remaining), #31, and #34 (Minnesota is said to be interested in packaging both second-rounders for a late first-rounder because of roster space concerns.)

Or, if Navarro is too complicated and the Heat insist on getting back Mike Miller:
Scenario 2:
Griz send Miller to Heat for Banks and Daequan Cook

In these scenarios, the Grizzlies would end up with a fair amount of dead-weight contract on the books (Banks and Madsen added to Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins), but none of the contracts are huge and all run out (or become expiring contract trade chips) over the next three seasons while the high-upside core (Beasley, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley) would all be on rookie contracts.

Another factor to consider is the Grizzlies cap space: That would enable the team to take on a bad contract as sweetener without parting with comparable salary. One scenario could be taking back a more onerous contract from Minnesota (Greg Buckner: 3 years and $12 million left) without giving up a Lowry or Warrick. Or even sending Cardinal (1 mid-level year left) and taking back Marko Jaric (3 mid-level years left).

With the team unlikely to be able to sign major free agents (mid-level signings such as Marc Gasol or Mickeal Pietrus are more likely), one potential use of a portion of the cap space should be to facilitate trades for other assets, such as draft picks from teams wanting to shed a bad (but not too bad) contract to avoid luxury tax or free up a roster spot. This is applicable to a number of scenarios, not just the three-team deal I’m discussing here.

If the window is open at all to trading up for Beasley — and it seems to be — then the Grizzlies should make an aggressive move.