Not as much noise this morning as yesterday, but a few notes before I continue my epic three-part series on the Grizzlies’ three draft-day possibilities:
The posturing seems to have accelerated in the Michael Beasley trade discussions. Chad Ford reported last night that the Heat are seriously considering taking O.J. Mayo (or even Jerryd Bayless) at #2 if they can’t work out an acceptable deal for the rights to Beasley.
This morning, Grizzlies beat writer Ron Tillery reported in the Commercial Appeal that the team is reluctant to include Mike Conley in any deal.
I believe this is what you call a standoff. I think a Beasley deal of some sort is going to go down tomorrow night, though Grizzlies insiders I talked to at today’s workout didn’t think the Grizzlies would end up getting him. However, the one person who really knows — Chris Wallace — isn’t talking. Well, he will be talking on The Chris Vernon Show at 5 p.m. today. We’ll see if Verno can get any choice info out of him.
Other tidbits of gossip and conjecture from today:
The Grizzlies brought in Bill Walker for an interview and physical but questions about his knee make him a long-shot pick at #28.
If the team goes big at #5 — trading up for Beasley or drafting Kevin Love — and then brings in Marc Gasol this summer, then the team’s needs at #28 are going to be on the perimeter. But what if one or more of the draft’s high-upside, high-risk big men — namely DeAndre Jordan or JaVale McGee — are there at #28? A tough decision.
One Grizzlies insider didn’t think Tiger Hero Chris Douglas-Roberts — who was in town for the workout — would fall to #28, but I’m not so sure. I’m also not sure that Douglas-Roberts at #28 would necessarily be the best player on the board. If CDR is there but the Grizzlies have someone ranked higher would they take CDR anyway? I don’t think so.
New Orleans selling their pick at #27 to Portland could factor heavily in CDR’s fate. The Hornets were a potential landing spot, but Portland is expected to go international at #28.
Douglas-Roberts worked out okay for the Grizzlies today: He shot well from mid-range and three-point range and showed some of his trademark crafty shot-making in live drills. But he was clearly a lesser athlete than workout competitors Sonny Weems and Jamont Gordan. I still can’t get a great feel for CDR’s NBA game, but I do know that the common Tayshaun Prince comparison I’ve heard from countless people over the past couple of months is completely bats#*t crazy. Douglas is probably 3-4 inches shorter than Prince and doesn’t have that kind of defensive ability. He may make it as a bench scorer or he may be out of the league within a couple of years, but Tiger homers should probably be prepared for the possibility of him falling into the second round.
As for the other prospects in today: I know the Grizzlies like Weems, but I don’t see him having first-round value. Gordon was a powerful combo guard with a solid shot. Wouldn’t make sense for the Grizzlies right now, but if Conley or Lowry are dealt earlier in the draft, I wouldn’t rule him out at #28.
If the Grizzlies can’t pull off a deal for Michael Beasley, they’ll choose between selecting at #5 and moving down or out of the lottery. If the team does pick at #5 — still the most likely scenario — here’s my what draft board would look like.
This is, I believe, the third version of rankings for the fifth pick that I’ve done, so I’m going to keep it brief to keep from repeating myself too much. I’m operating under the assumption that Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and O.J. Mayo will be off the board by #5. And, in that case, there are three players I would look at, who just so happen to be the three players I think the team is considering the most:
1. Kevin Love:
If the Grizzlies stay put at #5, I’m now fully on board the Love Train. Having watched at least half a dozen UCLA games this season, watched Love work out for the Grizzlies, talked to lots of people who know more than I do, and looked closely at his college numbers, I think Love is the fourth best prospect in the draft. He also happens to fill the Grizzlies’ greatest positional need while providing several more specific qualities the team really needs.
I do not buy the conventional wisdom that Love would be a safe pick with minimal upside while someone like Eric Gordon would provide a better shot at stardom. (For what it’s worth, pretty much every advanced stat study of these draft prospects ranks Love just behind Michael Beasley.)
One thing that’s interesting about Love is that he has two important skills that rarely come in tandem: Rebounding and three-point shooting.
Pace- and minutes-adjusted, Love is the most prolific rebounder in this draft class. At UCLA last season, he shot over 35% from college three-range and looked terrific shooting NBA threes at his draft workout.
These two skills tend to translate to the NBA better than most, so I think Love will be a significant rebounder and viable three-point threat at the next level, which is rare. Last season, only one player in the NBA had a rebound rate of 15 or better (arguably the threshold for above average for frontcourt players) and three-point percentage of 34% or better: Antawn Jamison, who barely qualified in each category. (Shawn Marion fell a little short on the shooting, Mehmet Okur on the rebounding). I think Love is going to meet this threshold, where he will perhaps be joined by another rookie with similarly diverse and rare skills: Michael Beasley.
One player who has united these skills frequently in his NBA career is Troy Murphy, particularly back in his Golden State days, which is maybe a more useful comparison for Love. Now, I know Murphy probably doesn’t generate much excitement, but at his peak he was a quality starting power forward based almost entirely on those two skills. Love matches Murphy in those areas and then adds: a dramatically more refined post game, far better passing skills (halfcourt and outlet), a better all-around feel for the game, and a more dynamic personality.
I’ve become very enamored of how well Love might fit with this team. I think he can be a terrific pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop partner for Mike Conley, which will really help Conley and diversify the offense. His passing ability at power forward adds a dimension sorely lacking with Hakim Warrick on the floor. Love isn’t going to finish many fast breaks at the rim, but despite not being fleet of foot, I think he can be an important cog in the running game for a couple of reasons: The outlet passing everybody knows about but probably overstates the importance of and his ability to spot up and knock down jumpers from whatever range as a trailer on the break.
Now, there are concerns about Love: Will he be too slow to guard perimeter-oriented power forwards and too short to guard the seven-foot post scorers in the league? And, if so, how big of a problem will this be? Secondly, will his body hold up — in terms of conditioning and injury potential — to the much longer, more stressful NBA season?
Everybody has risks at this point: I’m happy to take on Love’s.
I don’t think it’s clear-cut that Love would top the team’s own draft list at #5, but I think it’s probable. I do know that the team was looking at Love’s medical records today in a final bit of due diligence.
2. Eric Gordon:
I’m pretty comfortable with the notion that Gordon is going to be a significant scoring threat in the Association: He’s got deep shooting range, but isn’t one-dimensional. He’s also an aggressive and strong slasher who can get to the rim, absorb contact, and get off shots. I think this combo makes him a potential 20-point scorer at the next level.
Additionally, I think scoring guard is the team’s second biggest need. If Javaris Crittenton is a point guard (which remains to be seen), then Mike Miller is the only two-guard on the team and even he probably isn’t the long-term starter at that position as this team develops.
The problem with Gordon is I fear scoring may be all he provides. Gordon is undersized for the two and not an extraordinary athlete, so I don’t think he’ll be more than a mediocre defender or rebounder. He also seems to lack the ball skills to be a primary ballhandler.
Gordon’s season at Indiana reflects very poorly on his athleticism and all-around skills, and that was true even before the wrist injury and coaching change to disrupted his season and unjustly skewed his statistical record.
All-star scoring guards in the NBA don’t just give you 20 points a game; they give you 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. Not just Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade, but Joe Johnson and Vince Carter. I don’t think Gordon is in that class.
My best guess is that Gordon averages 20 points a game while Kevin Love averages closer to 15, but that Love impacts the game in so many ways that Gordon doesn’t that he’s still the more valuable pro.
As far as the chances of Gordon going at 5, I think there’s some difference of opinion within the team’s front office. Gordon has his strong proponents in the draft room, but I don’t think all the decision-makers are quite as sold on him.
3. Danillo Galinari:
Galinari is hard for me to judge because I’ve never seen him in person and never watched him play a full game. From everything I’ve seen and heard, I think he’s a high-level prospect: A big combo forward with advanced offensive skills who's excelled against high-level competition, has a strong pedigree, and seems to have a good demeanor about him.
I think he’s probably a better prospect than Gordon, but I also think he’s primarily a small forward, where Rudy Gay is slotted to play 35-40 minutes a night. But, if you’re looking for a darkhorse pick at #5, this is it. I know that Chris Wallace is very high on Gallinari and doesn’t think getting him signed and to Memphis will be a problem.
Others:
Brook Lopez: There’s some disagreement in the front office about Lopez’s NBA role. Some see him as a center exclusively; some think he can play power forward as well. I tend to think he’s a center, which, with Marc Gasol coming over to join Darko Milicic, is not a primary need. I don’t think Lopez will be a bust, like many seem to. I think he’ll be a quality starting center, but you don’t pick him here unless he’s going to a massive upgrade over the Gasol/Darko combo and I’m not sure he’s an upgrade at all. That said, every Grizzlies insider I’ve talked to continues to insist he’s still an option.
Jerryd Bayless: I like Bayless’ combination of shooting and athleticism, but I don’t think he can play with Conley and I don’t think he improves on him. A bad fit. I’ve been told by a team insider that the Grizzlies will not draft Bayless.
Anthony Randolph: I was very high on Randolph during the college season, but with every new piece of information, he moves down my list a little more: First weighing in at under 200 pounds at Orlando, then having a lackadaisical workout in Memphis, then having advanced analysis of his college numbers throw up all kinds of red flags. I still think Randolph has a very intriguing combination of athleticism, size, and skills, but he’s a long-range project with considerable risk. I’d love to get ahold of him later in the draft, but couldn’t justify using the #5 pick on him. The Grizzlies, I’m told, feel the same way. Randolph is no longer in the mix at #5.
Russell Westbrook: I worry about Westbrook as a potential workout wonder. I think he’s got point guard size without point guard skills and I worry he’s being overrated based on Rajon Rondo’s performance in the Finals and his rough athletic similarity. I don’t think he makes much sense for the Grizzlies as the roster is currently constituted, but his name continues to come up in conversations with team decision-makers as an option. The Grizzlies are focusing on improving their defense and there’s the belief that Westbrook is the best perimeter defender in the draft. Also, file this away: At a pre-draft chalk talk with season-ticket holders, new assistant coach Kevin O’Neil, who coached Arizona last season, said that he thought Westbrook was the best pro prospect in the PAC-10 last season. Other PAC-10 players: Kevin Love, Jerryd Bayless, Brook Lopez, O.J. Mayo.
