The Day Arrives
We're less than eight hours away from the start of the NBA Draft, an event that rivals Thanksgiving as my second favorite national holiday.
The Grizzlies are holding a draft party at FedExForum tonight, while an awful lot of diehards will be joining Chris Vernon at Jason's Deli at Poplar & Highland.
I'm resisting the pull of those events to bunker down in the draft war room at Beyond the Arc's Midtown Memphis headquarters. This is serious business, people — I need to focus.
With adult beverages, grilled meats, good friends, and wireless Internet at my disposal, I'll be tracking the draft from this secured and cozy location. I'll put up a live draft post shortly before the action starts and will contribute to it as seems warranted. If anyone else is tracking the draft from in reach of a computer, feel free to provide your own analysis, questions, grievances, or what-have-you in the comments. We'll do it big, as Joakim Noah might say.
Now, to finish what I started:
The Three Possibilities at #5: Moving Down (or Out)
Trading up with the Heat for Michael Beasley is clearly the most desirable option tonight.
But, if that can't be accomplished, don't be surprised if the Grizzlies move out of the #5 pick.
There's a belief in the team's front office that there are only two surefire stars in this draft: Beasley and Derrick Rose.
At five, with those two and O.J. Mayo off the board, there's also a feeling that there's not much difference, qualitatively, among the five or so players the Grizzlies would be considering: Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Brook Lopez, and Russel Westbrook.
The first trade rumor of this type that seemed to carry some substance was this:
#5 and Brian Cardinal to the Knicks for David Lee and Malik Rose.
Now, like pretty much everyone else who follows the team, I hated this idea at first. I'm less upset my the prospect after more thought, but I still would not do this trade.
David Lee is a good young player at a high-need position. He's a terrific rebounder and energy guy who could make a excellent front-court complement to Marc Gasol if Gasol pans out as strong offensive player. Lee is also established value rather than the risk associated with #5. In addition, Malik Rose's expiring contract would pair with that of Jason Collins to give the team potential max cap space in the summer of 2009, essentially buying the team a year to develop and assess its young talent and make a major free agent play in 09 (if you believe they'd be willing to do so).
So, I can see a clear basketball rationale in this trade. I don't it would be a move motivated by non-basketball issues, though that's how it would be perceived.
Still, I don't think it would be a good trade. I think the potential reward at #5 is greater than the value of David Lee. Not everyone — see ESPN.com's David Thorpe — agrees.
It may be a moot point, as reports now say this deal is dead.
A second trade-down scenario has popped up today that's more interesting — one with Charlotte that could take on a number of variations. Check out The Charlotte Observer for details.
Now, if all the elements are in play, the deal would look something like this:
#5 and Brian Cardinal for #9, #20, and Sean May
This is interesting to me. If you think that those five contender at #5 are of roughly equal value, then you can still get one of them at #9. Why not do so and also pick up #20, which could net Courtney Lee or some other similarly promising prospect? If you can make the upgrade — on court and on the books — of Cardinal for May as well, then all the better.
The question is: Who would Charlotte be taking at #5? The suggestion is Westbrook or Love. If it's Westbrook, then there's a good chance Love slides to #9, in which case I love this trade. If it's Love, then one of Westbrook, Gordon, or Gallinari should be there at #9.
As a back-up plan to not getting Michael Beasley, I think this could be a good trade.
That's all for now. Not sure if I'll be able to post again before the draft starts, but I hope to. Still haven't written much lately about candidates at #28 (or #20) and I'm sure there will be a lot of news and rumor breaking as the day progresses.
Enjoy Draftmas!
