What We Got: Mike Conley
Pat Wheeler: A game-legged old man and a drunk? That’s all you got?
John T. Chance: That’s what I got.
That exchange occurs in Rio Bravo, the 1959 Howard Hawks western that is one of my very favorite films. Wheeler, played by bit player supreme Ward Bond, is concerned about his friend Chance (John Wayne), a small-town sheriff who is holding a murderer in the face of a legion of hired guns looking to spring the man. His only help, at this moment, are a couple of deputies — game-legged Old Stumpy (Walter Brennan) and alcoholic Dude (Dean Martin). Soon after this exchange, Chance’s motley bunch of colleagues is enhanced by the addition of a woman (wanted gambler Feathers, played by Angie Dickinson) and a teenager (Ricky Nelson’s Colorado).
But Chance doesn’t curse his luck or the deficiencies of his allies. They're what he’s got, and he’s determined to make the best of it.
Grizzlies coach Marc Iavaroni faces a similar uphill battle with the Grizzlies this season, taking on the world’s finest basketball league with a kiddie corps of guards, a trio of unproven, international seven-footers, a couple of skinny “power” forwards, a trio of negligible veterans, and one budding star.
That’s all the 2008-2009 Grizzlies have got? Well, that’s what they’ve got.
With training camp opening Monday, September 29th, I’ll spend the next week taking an early look at how the team’s roster shapes up to begin the (pre-)season, starting with the guards.
Mike Conley
Rudy Gay is the best player the Grizzlies have, and rookie O.J. Mayo will likely be the most talked about. But I tend to think that second-year point guard Conley is the most important played on this year’s team.
Conley’s rookie year was generally perceived as a disappointment. But look at this lead paragraph from ESPN.com’s John Hollinger’s player profile on Rudy Gay prior to last season:
Gay’s rookie season went through some peaks and valleys, but in the end it was a mild disappointment. While he didn't immediately disprove the idea that he can be a star forward in the league someday, his final results were pretty uninspiring.
Substitute “Conley” for “Gay” and “point guard” for “forward” and the same thing could be written about Mike Conley right now. The question for the Grizzlies is this: Can Conley make the kind of sophomore leap this year that Rudy Gay did last year?
During his rookie campaign, Conley was never able to find a sustained rhythm. The team broke him in very gradually, playing him off the bench and only on the road (apparently unintentionally). Conley was very productive on a per-minute basis and seemed primed to take the starting job, but injured his shoulder just as he was about to be moved into the starting lineup.
Conley came back 20 games later and assumed the starting job, performing well for about a month before missing a week or so with another minor injury. By March, he seemed to hit a rookie wall, scoring more than 11 points in only one game that month and registering more than 5 assists only twice. But he rebounded in April to close out the year with his best month of the season.
Along the way, Conley gave a pretty good display of the skill set and qualities that made him a top 5 pick: Elite-level quickness, ability to penetrate and finish, poise, and an unusual ability for such a young point guard to avoid turnovers. His shooting needs to improve (though it was probably a little bit better than expected), and his steal rate was a disappointment for someone with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender. Overall, though, the Grizzlies need Conley to be a more dynamic, active player this season. Too often, Conley was a non-factor last season. The Grizzlies need Conley to impose his skills on the game much more consistently this season.
What kind of improvement will Conley make from year one to year 2?
To put Conley’s rookie season into better perspective, it’s helpful to compare it to the rookie campaigns of players the Grizzlies hope Conley can emulate.
Here are the rookie numbers of the top 10 point guards in the NBA last season, based on John Hollinger’s PER rankings. The per-game numbers are expressed as per-36 minutes, from the Basketball-Reference.com site, to make comparisons equal.
Player (Age)
Pts-As-St-TO
FG%-3P%
PER
Chris Paul (20)
16.1-7.8-2.2-2.3
43-28
22.1
Chauncey Billups (21)
14.5-5.1-1.7-2.8
37-33
13.6
Steve Nash (22)
11.2-7.3-1.1-3.3
42-42
10.8
Deron Williams (21)
13.5-5.6-0.9-2.3
42-42
12.4
Jose Calderon (24)
8.4-7.0-1.0-2.4
42-16
11.4
T.J. Ford (20)
9.6-8.7-1.5-3.4
38-24
12.1
Tony Parker (19)
11.2-5.3-1.4-2.4
42-32
11.7
Baron Davis (20)
11.5-7.3-2.3-3.3
42-23
12.9
Andre Miller (23)
15.7-8.2-1.4-2.9
45-20
17.9
Devin Harris (21)
13.4-5.2-2.4-2.5
43-34
14.7
And now Conley’s rookie season by the same standards:
Mike Conley (20)
13.0-5.8-1.1-2.3
43-33
12.6
Chris Paul (22.1 rookie PER) and Andre Miller(17.9) are the outliers here, and for obvious reasons: Paul is a superstar — the most talented all-around small guard since Isiah Thomas, and maybe better than that. Miller came into the league at age 23 after four years of college ball.
If you set aside Paul and Miller as unfair rookie-season comparisons, the Conley’s rookie production falls in line with that of every other player on the list: Conley’s PER (12.6) would rank 4th among the nine players. His scoring rate (13.0) would rank 4th. His assist rate (5.8) would rank 5th. His steal rate (1.1) would be tied for 6th (disappointing given Conley’s physical skills). His turnover rate (2.3) would be tied for first. His overall shooting percentage (43%) would also be tied for first. Even his three-point shooting, thought to be one of his biggest deficiencies, is topped significantly only by Nash and Williams (and is considerably better than Paul or Miller).
Factor in also that Conley’s combination of youth, inexperience, and physical stature as a rookie is rivaled only by Tony Parker, and Conley’s “disappointing” rookie season starts looking pretty promising.
Now, it should be noted that this comparison doesn’t quite suggest that Conley will become as good as all the players on this list. I’m sure I could find plenty of point guards with similar rookie production that didn’t develop. But what it does prove is that there was nothing about Conley’s rookie season that would suggest he can’t develop into an elite point guard.
This summer, Conley came into “rookie camp” with more upper body muscle and a smoother-looking jump shot. He was terrific in the practices I saw, but worryingly erratic in limited summer league play.
After suggesting one of the team’s three young point guards would be moved this summer, it looks like Chris Wallace will instead be bringing all three back into training camp, with the addition of two other players — O.J. Mayo and Marko Jaric — with at least a pretense of playing point guard.
Despite this logjam, Conley needs to seize the job — on the court and off — leaving no doubt who this team’s point guard and floor general is. Frankly, I see him beating out Kyle Lowry and Javaris Crittenton decisively in that regard. The bigger question will be how Conley fits in a starting backcourt alongside Mayo, a guard that seems to need the ball to be effective and whose long-term NBA position could be point guard. That question won’t begin to be answered until Conley and Mayo pair up against NBA competition.
