What We Got: Kyle Lowry
(Note: These profiles will get shorter — in some cases much, much shorter — from here on out. Got going on Lowry and couldn't stop myself.)
In the first installment of this pre-training-camp look at the Grizzlies roster, I compared the statistical record from Mike Conley’s rookie season to that off the best current point guards in the league.
Chip Crain, of Three Shades of Blue, asked how Conley’s backcourt competitor, Kyle Lowry, would stack up if his 07-08 season were submitted to the same test. The short answer: Very well. Lowry had a higher PER than Conley last season (14.32 to 12.65) and probably a slightly more effective all-around season.
But I don’t think it makes sense to judge Lowry’s production last season in the same way, for two reasons:
1. It wasn’t Lowry’s rookie season. Because Lowry played only 10 games the prior season before going down to a season-ending injury optimistic Grizzlies fans want to consider last year his rookie campaign. But it really wasn’t. Lowry had already gone through a rookie camp, summer league, training camp, and preseason. He’d already gotten a taste of regular-season NBA competition. He’d had a year’s exposure to NBA coaching, conditioning, teammates, travel, etc. I don’t think comparing Lowry’s season a year ago to that of the true rookie seasons of other point guards is very instructive.
As far as comparing it to Conley: Lowry had two years in college and was in his second year of NBA “experience,” whereas Conley had one year of college and was in his first year of NBA exposure, so I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to make a direct comparison of the two seasons in terms of gauging developmental potential.
2. Innate skills. The point of the comparison between Conley as a rookie and the rookie season of the top point guards in the league was to get a sense of what Conley’s rookie production says about his ability to build on innate skills that suggest he, too, can be an elite point guard.
I don’t think Lowry has the same kind of skill set. Conley’s court vision and passing ability — in concert with his quickness — gives him a much higher ceiling than Lowry. I also think Conley’s potential as a shooter is greater than Lowry’s given the substantial improvements Conley made over the course of the season.
Now, about Lowry’s game: The bulldog point guard I christened “Lil Lowry” had an effective second season, but didn’t make the kind of dramatic impact he did in his brief introduction the prior year. This was probably to be expected: Lowry’s impact in November of 2006, especially defensively and on the boards, was too dramatic not to taper off.
Offensively, Lowry’s greatest attribute is his ability to penetrate, absorb contact, and get off shots — i.e. draw fouls. Last year, Lowry had five games in which her garnered double-digit free-throw attempts and averaged 8.0 free-throw attempts per 48 minutes. Now, that number doesn’t quite match the rates of the league’s elite slashing two guards (players like Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, and Corey Maggette, whose rates fall in the 11-13 range), but it is extremely high for a point guard. I can’t say for certain, but I suspect it might have been the highest rate in the league for a point guard (unless you consider Allen Iverson a point). For instance, dynamic penetrating points such as Tony Parker, Baron Davis, and Chris Paul all had lower rates (7.4, 6.4, and 6.2, respectively).
But, while Lowry is fearless going to the rack, he may not have been as effective as he could have been. For starters, Lowry shot under 70% from line last season, after shooting nearly 90% in his rookie-year sneak preview. Ninety percent is unrealistic, but if getting to the line is going to be so central to Lowry’s offense (he got fouled on nearly 20% of his shot attempts last season, Maggette territory), he needs to shoot better than last season’s 69%.
Additionally, Lowry’s fearlessness might reasonably be characterized as recklessness on occasion — or maybe just an indication of his limitations. Lowry gets into the paint at will, but seems to have only one thing in mind when he does — going straight to the rim.
Compare him to Conley in this regard: Despite playing 700 fewer minutes on the season, Conley actually had six more interior assists than Lowry, suggesting Conley was more adept at finding open teammates in the seams of a collapsing defense when he got into the paint. Conley actually took a higher percentage of his shots in the paint (45% to Lowry’s 40%, both very high numbers for point guards) than Lowry, but also had fewer of them blocked. Fourteen percent of Conley’s interior shot attempts were blocked, compared to 22% for Lowry. And Conley shot a slightly higher percentage (53 to 51) on interior attempts. All of this confirms the first-hand observation that Conley was more adept at avoiding defenders to get shots off cleanly, either at the rim and pulling up for floaters over rotating defenders, whereas Lowry was more likely to just plow right into the defense.
Lowry’s outside shooting was sketchy last season (26% from three), and he shot it too often (nearly two attempts a game in only 25 minutes) for someone who was connecting so rarely.
Defensively, Lowry wasn’t quite as dynamic as in his debut, but still seems to have the ability — the quickness, the strength, the tenacity — to be one of the best defenders in the league at his position. If Conley asserts himself and Lowry is willing to buy into a more limited role off the bench — even if just for this season — I think he can be a disruptive force in reserve. I wouldn’t be shocked if Lowry were the best back-up point guard in the league this season.
But that’s also part of the problem: I’ve dubbed Lowry the Evolutionary Earl Watson, in reference to the former Griz back-up point guard who was never satisfied by that role. Some Grizzlies fans (and media members) scoff at the notion that Lowry could be a starting point guard, but there are 30 teams in the league. Kyle Lowry can’t be one of the 30 best point guards in the league? I’m not sure he isn’t close to that already.
Lowry’s going to be a bubble player — a low-level starter or a high-level backup — but, for better or worse he’s got an alpha dog’s demeanor. He’s charismatic, confident, and a leader of men — for good or ill.
Look at this revealing quote from Three Shades of Blue’s recent interview with coach Marc Iavaroni:
I think Kyle Lowry jumps out as a guy has admitted I want to be a leader. Sometimes I wasn't a good one but I want to be a good one.
The transcription here is a little sloppy, but I’m assuming Iavaroni is ascribing this sentiment — “sometimes I wasn’t one” — to Lowry himself. That puts a more hopeful spin on an acknowledgment that Lowry has a big impact in the locker room, but not always a positive one. I’ve actually heard team insiders compare Lowry to Bonzi Wells — not to suggest he’s as bad a guy, but to imply he's got a bit of Bonzi’s manipulative streak in him.
Lowry is clearly one of Rudy Gay’s closest friends on the team, but is also unlikely to beat out Mike Conley for a starting role. How he accepts his role and place in the team pecking order — on and off the court — is a storyline to watch. Ultimately, I can’t see Lowry staying the team through a second contract, but with Conley still growing into the job and Lowry still building his value, it would probably behoove the team to maximize this young, athletic point guard combo before they go about breaking it up.
(Note: A lot of the stats in this post come from 82games.com.)
