As the Commercial Appeal’s Ron Tillery first reported yesterday, the Grizzlies are going to sign swingman Quinton Ross to a non-guaranteed contract. Ross, a 6’6” defensive specialist, is 27 years old and spent his first four years in the league with the Los Angeles Clippers, where he’s averaged 21 minutes per game and occasionally been a starter.
I endorse the signing, though Ross doesn’t address the team’s biggest need (more power at power forward) and doesn’t add the three-point shooting this year’s squad may lack.
I wrote a blog piece on July 1st where, among other things, I listed Ross among eight free-agent perimeter players I thought the Grizzlies should take a look at. He wasn’t my first choice (that was Kelenna Azubuike), but Ross was someone I thought could be a quality, cost-effective reserve for the team.
Ross is a good athlete who’s carved a niche for himself as a defensive stopper, ably guarding the best scoring guards and small forwards on opposing teams. Ross could be a very valuable bench player if he could make an open shot, a la San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen, whose corner threes give him enough offensive value to allow his stellar defense on the floor.
But Ross has very little offensive value. Of his 1395 career field-goal attempts, only 42 have been three-pointers, and he’s only made 12 of them. Most of those long-range makes came last year, when Ross shot 9-21 from three. Could it be that he’s developing an outside shot four years into his NBA career? It wouldn’t be unprecedented, but last year’s performance was such a small sample that it’s hard to find it very meaningful, and Ross shot a career worst 39% overall last year.
The bet here is that Ross makes the team and gets spot minutes as a defensive specialist. I don’t see him as a regular member of the “eight-man rotation” as Chris Vernon suggested when we discussed the signing on his radio show yesterday. And most of Ross’s minutes should come backing up Rudy Gay at small forward. (Though it should be noted that, at 6’6”, 193 pounds, Ross is about the same size as Tarence Kinsey, whom Marc Iavaroni wasn’t comfortable playing at the three last season.)
Ross is also, as I noted yesterday, the cousin of Griz rookie Darrell Arthur. I doubt that was much of a factor in the signing, but given the off-court problems Arthur has already had this summer, it probably won’t hurt.
I’ve seen O.J. Mayo play in person three times — once at the Nike Hoop Summit before his college season at USC and twice this summer at practice sessions at the Forum. And, to be honest, I’ve been underwhelmed each time. On the other hand, I’ve seen him much more on television — at USC and in the Las Vegas Summer League — and have been much more impressed.
The upshot is, until I can watch him up close against NBA competition, I’m going to have a hard time developing a strong opinion on how good of an NBA player Mayo will be.
On the downside: Mayo does not have great size for a scoring guard, though I wouldn’t really label him undersized. He lacks the mammoth wingspan that lets someone like Dwyane Wade play so much bigger than his height. And, at least at the moment, he doesn’t look like he takes care of the ball well enough to play the point much. He’s a good, not great athlete.
On a more optimistic note, Mayo seems like a big-time shot-maker: He seems adept at finding space and launching — and making — shots anywhere on the floor. He has a presence about him, and, by all accounts, is an intense worker and more intense competitor. If he pans out, he could inject some much-needed swagger into this team.
The names I’ve heard team insiders compare Mayo to the most have been Chauncey Billups and Brandon Roy. If Mayo can become as good as Roy, I think the team would be very happy. His downside, I think, might be something like Jamal Crawford — a talented gunner with theoretical point skills but not really an all-star level player.
As for this season: I think it’s almost a certainty that Mayo is the team’s starting two guard from day one and likely its second option offensively. I think there’s a very good chance Mayo leads rookies in minutes per game and shot attempts. But anyone expecting him to look like an all-star as a rookie should probably temper his or her expectations. Rookies struggle — remember Rudy Gay’s rocky but ultimately productive debut season? — and I don’t see why Mayo will be any different.
Long-term, there are two questions about Mayo: How good will he be and what position will he ultimately thrive at? There is a belief out there — which I’ve heard from outsiders and team insiders — that Mayo’s ultimate position is point guard. With the Grizzlies already loaded with young talent at the point, this is a question that is extremely important in terms of what direction the roster takes from here on out.
