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What We Got: The Vets

If there’s one thing this year’s Grizzlies squad lacks as much as proven power, it would seem to be veteran leadership. The three oldest players on one of the league’s youngest teams all came over from Minnesota in the Kevin Love-O.J. Mayo trade, and none of them would seem to have primary roles on this season’s team, much less a significant role in the team’s building process. Let’s break them down one by one:

Antoine Walker: ’Toine is a compelling, entertaining personality, but not always a productive one, and his game has significantly diminished over the years. You have to wonder at this point if his on-court contribution would be offset by potential locker-room problems.

Walker has a $9.3 million expiring contract. (He has a team option for 2009-2010 that neither the Grizzlies nor any other team would pick up.) If the Grizzlies were to buy Walker out, the savings would be minimal. If they keep him on the roster, not only is there the possibility of getting on-court value, but also the team would retain his large expiring as a potential trade chip as well as his rights as a potential sign-and-trade commodity next summer. It may well be that using Walker’s contract in either of those ways is a long shot, but as long as you have to pay him anyway, why not keep your options open? At this point, it seems likely that Walker is on the roster to start the season, though the recent signing of Quinton Ross would enable the team to stay at the roster minimum of 13 if they decided to buy Walker out.

Now, if Walker does suit up, what kind of contributor could he be? Walker may not be as ancient as you think: He turned 32 this summer, though there is a lot of wear-and-tear and he doesn’t seem to have stayed in peak condition. Walker has long been a very skilled player — small forward skills in a power forward package. But he’s been an increasingly inefficient player over the past several seasons — turnover-prone and overly reliant on his inconsistent three-point shooting.

Walker was a part-time player last season and ended up shooting a dreadful 36% from the floor. Walker hasn’t been a serviceable contributor since the 2005-2006 season and I’d be surprised if that changes. At 32, however, it’s probably too early to completely write him off. He may get another shot with the Grizzlies this season. If he does, look for the bulk of his minutes to come at the four, where he’d likely be competing with rookie Darrell Arthur for minutes. At this point in his career, Walker is probably too slow to survive at the small forward.

Marko Jaric: Jaric is a versatile player whose combination of size (6’7”) and ball skills enable him to play all three perimeter positions.

Jaric rebounded from a particularly bad 07-08 campaign to average more than 29 minutes per game in 75 appearances for the Wolves last season, averaging 8 points, 3 boards, and 4 assists per game. He shot a solid 36% from three-point range, a couple of ticks over his 34% career shooting. Jaric is not a great defender, but with his size and decent athleticism, he’s far from a liability. He has good hands and tends to have very high steal rates. Essentially, Jaric performed like a pretty decent 7th-to- 9th man, which could be the role he plays for the Grizzlies next season.

On the downside, Jaric will turn 30 just before the start of the season and is moving from one losing/rebuilding team to another, which is probably not what he envisioned for this stage of his career, so you have to wonder how motivated he will be. If everyone’s healthy, it looks like Jaric will be competing with Javaris Crittenton for back-up minutes at the 2 and Quinton Ross for backup minutes at the three. At this point, he’s likely the best all-around player among that trio. Another looming question is what impact — if any — the presence of Jaric might have on the attitude and focus of his countryman, Darko Milicic.

Greg Buckner: Buckner is 32 and has limited and diminishing skills. A 6’4” swingman, he’s probably one of the least productive offensive players in the league for that position. What he does bring is toughness and decent athleticism, which makes him a serviceable defender and rebounder. Those traits might have garnered him some spot minutes in Beale Street Blue next season, but new signee Quinton Ross is essentially a younger, better version of Buckner. If Ross makes the team, whatever on-court role Buckner might have had seems to disappear.

Submitted by Chris Herrington on Sun, 09/28/2008 - 5:39pm.
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What We Got: Rudy Gay

If there was one positive memorable thing about the Grizzlies 22 win 07-08 season, it was Rudy Gay’s emergence as the team’s best player. Gay was leading the team in scoring even before Pau Gasol was traded and ended the season averaging 20.1 points per game (the first second-year player to top 20 ppg since the Lebron James-Carmelo Anthony-Dwyane Wade troika) and set a team record for total points in a season. Along the way, he finished runner-up to Hedo Turkoglu in the Most Improved Player balloting.

The key to Gay’s big leap last season was a dramatic transformation as a scorer and shot-maker. As a rookie, Gay was an awkward scoring threat in halfcourt sets, with a frustrating tendency to hover with his dribble for several seconds before launching contested two-point jumpers. But last year, Gay was a radically different player.

Gay’s usage rate, scoring rate, field-goal percentage, and free-throw percentage all shot up, while his turnover rate declined. (His three-point percentage declined slightly due to a bad shooting slump in March.) His percentage of assisted baskets declined from 54% as a rookie to 42% last season, a result of becoming more effective creating shots off the dribble. And his effective field-goal percentage on jump shots improved from 41% to 47% despite the slight decline in three-point percentage, a result of a significantly improved mid-range game.

Along the way, Gay showed signs of being a player who wants to take big shots late in games and can make them (as witnessed by his season-highlight game winner over Tim Duncan and his back-to-back clutch threes to force overtime against the Hornets). According the 82Games.com, Gay’s field-goal percentage in clutch situations improved from 39% to 53% while is percentage of assisted baskets in the clutch declined dramatically, from 65% to 32%. Put simply, Gay evolved into a much-needed go-to scorer: Someone the team can could give the ball in a tight situation and depend on to create a good shot and, more often than not, make it. This put Gay in stark contrast to the team’s other primary scorers over the course of its Memphis tenure — Pau Gasol and Mike Miller, both consistently shaky in the clutch.

But, if Gay’s production and versatility as a scorer took a major leap in his second season, other aspects of his game were troublingly stagnant. Gay’s rebound and assist rate declined slightly and he didn’t take enough advantage of his enormous physical gifts to be a disruptive presence defensively. (One good sign: There was promising improvement in Gay’s playmaking production over the course of the season. For instance, in his first 10 games, Gay notched 10 total assists. Over the course of his final 10 games, he had 28 assists.)

If Gay wants to be a true all-star player, then he needs to consolidate and expand upon his offensive improvements from last season. But far more importantly, he needs to become the all-around impact player his physical skills can allow him to be. He needs to hit the boards harder, especially on the offensive end, and become a much, much more significant defender.

Like last season, the team lacks a true small forward off the bench, but versatile swingmen Quinton Ross and Marko Jaric should still give the team better production at small forward than the team got last season Casey Jacobsen or its series of short-term signees. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t look for much of a decline in the 37 minutes per game Gay played last season. And, if Jaric and/or Ross play well while rookie power forward Darrell Arthur struggles, Gay could see significant minutes again at power forward in small-ball lineups.

Submitted by Chris Herrington on Mon, 09/29/2008 - 1:34am.
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