The Grizzlies preseason kicks off Tuesday with a game against Unicaja Malaga, which will be broadcast on NBA TV at 1 p.m. This year, preseason seems more important than ever in terms of getting a feel for how the team will play and how the starting lineup and rotation will shake out.
Here’s an early guide on the roles that seem to be up for grabs:
1. Starting Point Guard: Mike Conley, Jr. vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Damon Stoudamire
There seems to be a growing sentiment that Damon Stoudamire could begin the season as the team’s starting point guard, which would be quite a change from the message Chris Wallace delivered after the team drafted Mike Conley, Jr., when he suggested Stoudamire wouldn’t play much and would serve as something of a de facto point guard coach for Conley and second-year guard Kyle Lowry.
In the interim, of course, Stoudamire has chafed at that notion and has looked better in training camp than he has since a knee injury ended his first season in Memphis back in late 2005.
I suppose there are rationales for making Stoudamire the starter, at least initially: if the team is nervous about the on- and off-court consequences of getting off to a bad start and wants to lean on veterans early on; if the team is concerned about Stoudamire damaging team chemistry with an early trade demand as a result of not playing; if the Griz brass wants to showcase Stoudamire for a potential trade. (This last is the rationale I like best.)
That said, I think going with Stoudamire for any length of time is likely a mistake. While Stoudamire’s far superior shooting ability and massive experience advantage work in his favor, I don’t think he fits the style of play coach Marc Iavaroni seems to want to install. Stoudamire may no longer be quick enough to effectively trigger an uptempo attack (and has never really been a pass-first point guard) and is certainly not equipped to spearhead an aggressive, effective defensive style. By contrast, both Conley and Lowry are perfectly suited to this style on both ends of the floor, with Conley seemingly having an edge offensively and Lowry an edge defensively.
Another factor is that the team’s perimeter depth makes it unlikely Iavaroni will deploy any combination of these players in a small backcourt (at least with any regularity). That means making Stoudamire the starter OR backup will effectively push either Conley or Lowry out of the rotation entirely. And for the long-term good of the franchise, both of these players need to develop on the court.
The bet here is that whoever gets the nod to start the season, Conley will eventually emerge as the starter. The rookie was handpicked by Iavaroni with the 4th pick in a strong draft to run his team. At some point, and I imagine it will be sooner rather than later, I expect Conley to be handed the keys. But we’ll see how this plays out in the preseason.
2. Third Swingman: Juan Carlos Navarro vs. Tarence Kinsey vs. Casey Jacobsen
With the Grizzlies likely playing some small-ball combinations that would shift Rudy Gay to power forward on occasion, it’s possible that two of these players find themselves in the regular rotation, but there isn’t room for three.
An NBA journeyman who seems to bring one primary skill — spot-up shooting — to the table, Jacobsen is likely to play only situational minutes. That leaves Navarro and Kinsey, and the battle there for first wing player off the bench should be fascinating to watch in the preseason.
Navarro would seem to have the edge: He’s an established veteran star on the international stage that the new regime gave up a potential future first-round pick to acquire. He’s supposedly a deadeye outside shooter coming to a team that identified additional three-point shooting as a primary offseason need. He’s also the best friend of the team’s formerly disgruntled star player.
On the other hand, with three talented point guards already competing for two spots, the combo guard Navarro is unlikely to see many minutes at the point, which means he may be competing exclusively for minutes on the wings, where the rangier Kinsey provides more versatility. The big question is: Can Navarro guard anybody? An initial look at him in practice earlier this week inspires doubt. If not, is his offense strong enough to make up for it?
Kinsey is a holdover from the previous regime (though the people who found him and fought for him to make the team — the Barones — are part of the new regime as well), so there may be some concern that Iavaroni and Wallace could be less committed to him than to their own acquisitions. But the hunch here is that Kinsey plays his way into the rotation one way or another. Unlike Navarro and Jacobsen, Kinsey can help the team on both ends of the floor and continues — through summer league and early in this training camp — to demonstrate that his fine play this spring was no fluke.
3. Second Big: Darko Milicic vs. Hakim Warrick
This probably isn’t a contest over a starting spot, because Milicic seems like the strong favorite to start alongside Pau Gasol. But there will be a competition over who plays more minutes and who finishes games.
Milicic’s potential to give the Griz better rebounding and post defense gives him the edge. But Iavaroni seems particularly intrigued by the speed of Warrick at the power forward position.
With Warrick coming on strong, Milicic might need a strong preseason to solidify his place in the pecking order.
4. Fourth Big: Stromile Swift vs. Brian Cardinal vs. Andre Brown
This battle is in some ways the inverse of the one taking place among Navarro, Kinsey, and Jacobsen. Because of the likelihood of Iavaroni using small lineups — with Rudy Gay as a “Phoenix four” — there’s a good chance that none of these players are in the rotation, which would mean this is a battle for consistent spot minutes.
The journeyman Brown is a rugged forward who adds needed muscle and fits the style, but I sense that he was brought in mostly to be a quality practice player who would be willing to accept that role.
As for Swift, he hasn’t looked good early, with listless play and declining hops. Cardinal, on the other hand, has looked better than he has since he signed in Memphis. As a plodder, he wouldn’t seem to fit Iavaroni’s style, but his ability to give the team a quality three-point shooter from the power-forward slot works in his advantage. Cardinal’s physical — if under-sized — post defense could also help him earn minutes, particularly if Milicic struggles in this regard or misses time to injury.
