Well, now that college basketball season is over and we have a pretty good feel for the range of possibility for the Grizzlies lottery pick this summer, now seems like a good time for an early read on the draft.

The Grizzlies are currently slotted 5th in the league’s inverted standings (winning – or losing, as the case may be — a tiebreaker with Knicks), but are only two games behind (or ahead of ) the fast-fading Clippers. From a draft perspective, the team’s worst-case scenario would be to be slotted 6th heading into the lottery. With the lottery impacting the top three slots, the lowest possible draft position for the Grizzlies would be 9th.

With that in mind, here are my current rankings for Grizzlies draft prospects, going nine deep. These are my own rankings, not a prediction of what the team’s own draft rankings look like. I’ll update my own picks after the pre-draft camps and the lottery itself as well as delving into what the Grizzlies will actually do.

Part two, focusing on potential draftees for the team’s late first-round pick, will come later in the week.

1. Derrick Rose: Not a homer pick. Rose’s Tiger credentials and the built-in fan excitement he would provide would be a huge boon to a franchise rapidly losing paying customers, but all that’s just gravy. When you pick #1, you have to take the best player available, and I think that’s Rose. There’s certainly a debate to be had between Rose and Michael Beasley, but, to me, the clincher has long been this: Both are fabulous talents who have been terrifically productive as college freshman, but Beasley doesn’t have great size or athleticism for the NBA position he’ll be playing. Rose does, and then some. He would have been one of the most physically impressive point guards in the Association this season.

Since I first saw Rose at the Nike Hoop Summit last spring, I’ve been most impressed by his Jason Kidd-like ability to get the ball off the glass and push it up court — with the dribble or long lead pass — quickly and effectively. He’s a decent shooter who can get better. He’s got all-league defensive abilities. And he’s an explosive athlete who can take contact and finish around the rim. He simply makes plays, all over the court. In addition to Kidd, Rose’s game at times evokes Gary Payton, Deron Williams, Baron Davis, and Dwyane Wade. He’s got the biggest upside in the draft with minimal risk. I think you have to take him if you have the chance, regardless of the chain of roster-reorganization moves acquiring yet another young point guard would set off.

2. Michael Beasley: If Rose is #1, then the freshman phenom from Kansas State would be a clear-cut #2. Beasley is an easier fit for the Grizzlies, filling an obvious need with incumbent power forward Hakim Warrick better equipped to come off the bench. One of the potential problems with Beasley is that he’s got a power forward’s game, but not quite the size you look for at that position in the current NBA.

ESPN.com lists him at 6’10”, 235 pounds, but I’ll be very surprised if he actually measures in at that height at the pre-draft camp. So, he’s a tweener, but in this case he’s such an immense talent that I think that probably means “between Carmelo Anthony and Carlos Boozer.” Beasley gets compared to Derrick Coleman because he’s a talented forward said to have some personality/off-court issues (more comment on that at a later date), but I don’t think he really plays much like Coleman; he doesn’t have that size. In addition to the Melo/Boozer comp above, a couple of others that make sense to me: A more explosive David West. Maybe even, at his very best, a Charles Barkley type.

The things that have impressed me most about Beasley are his hands, strength, and nose for the ball (and the bucket). In college games, he’s often been double-teamed (really double blocked-out) off the ball and he routinely still gets offensive rebounds and put-backs. He’s strong with the ball, is a good shooter out to college-three range, and is athletic enough to start the break as well as run the floor and finish. He can also face up and drive in halfcourt sets. I think he’s a good bet to be a 20-10 power forward in the NBA, but I worry about his defense and don’t think he has the superstar upside that Rose has.

3. Anthony Randolph: As an unheralded freshman on a bad team, Randolph has been under the radar most of this season, but is climbing the draft boards now. I haven’t seen anyone listing him quite this high, but I have questions about every candidate after Rose and Beasley and when I look at the mix of production, potential, and fit each remaining player provides, I like Randolph.

Randolph is really long — I buy the 6’11” listing and suspect his wingspan will make that even more impressive — and very skilled for his age and size. He’ll get compared to Stromile Swift and Tyrus Thomas because of the LSU connection, but he’s taller, more skilled, and more versatile. He’s got some good post moves (drop step, spin move) and has an excellent handle (can face and drive and can also start the break). He's a big-time athlete who really covers a lot of ground with a single stride or dribble. He’s a shot-blocking threat who can also step out and guard pick-and-rolls. He’s a decent free-throw shooter (69% this year) who also has the ability to knock down mid-range jumpers.

On the bad side, he’s still really raw athletically. Randolph needs to add 20 pounds of muscle to hold his own in the NBA. That he only shot 46% from the floor is the result of a lack of strength, getting bumped out of position and turning easy shots into harder ones). Still, as a skinny freshman, he did average 16 points, 9 boards, and 2.5 blocks in the SEC. He’s not Deandre Jordan. He’ll play next year.

Randolph is also a great fit assuming the Grizzlies stick to their current plan/projected style of play: He’s the perfect fit as an uptempo-friendly “Phoenix 4” to play between Rudy Gay and Darko Milicic.

4. Brook Lopez: I don’t love what I’ve seen of Lopez, but he is not your classic “big white stiff.” Legit seven-footers with his combination of agility and production as college sophomores demand attention. Lopez has a scorer’s knack around the rim though I haven’t seen much of a developed post game when I’ve watched him this season. He fights for good post position and consistently scores against double teams at the college level, though he doesn’t seem to be a willing or capable passer in those situations. Seems to be a decent mid-range shooter.

One of the best things about Lopez is that he has a great motor for a big man — he plays with a lot of energy and passion, maybe too much sometimes. Doesn’t seem to be a dominant interior defender or rebounder (or maybe he slacked in those areas with his brother around to patrol the paint), but is a shot-blocker and defends well on the perimeter for a big man.

I think Lopez is agile and skilled enough to start at the 4 alongside Darko and big enough to play center when the team goes small. Not an exciting pick, but I think he’ll be a good pro. The “Tim Duncan at the same age” comparisons are intriguing, but I don’t see Lopez ever having that kind of defensive impact.

5. O.J. Mayo: Despite his high-school hype, Mayo looks more like the next Jamal Crawford than another Lebron James or a more athletic Chauncey Billups. But I think he’s got more upside than Eric Gordon and with his size is a better fit than Jerryd Bayless.

He’s a super-strong athlete with great explosiveness, hang-time, and agility. I don’t think he’s a combo guard, but he can drive and dish as well as look for his own shot. I think he can be a 20-point scorer in the NBA who also has some defensive value. I’m tempted to put him above Lopez, but one of my concerns with Mayo is that if he totally pans out he’ll be harder to resign than Lopez or Randolph.

6. Jerryd Bayless: As a skinny, 6’3” combo guard, Bayless is not a great fit for the Griz, but I have to put him here on talent. He’s a dynamic player: super-quick with the dribble, a deadly crossover, a good shooter with three-point range, explosive going to the rim. He has a chance to be a better-shooting version of Monta Ellis. If the Grizzlies would be interested in signing Ellis in free agency, then why not be interested in drafting his potential clone for cheaper?

7. Kevin Love: I dismissed Love the first time I saw him at the Hoop Summit. Waddling up the court, he does not look like a pro. But he won me over this season. He’s bull-strong (really knows how to block out defensively and seal his man offensively) and fundamentally sound. A great passer, obviously, especially on outlet passes. He can shoot it out to college-three range. Good free-throw shooter. Quick, strong post moves and great second effort following his shots and attacking the offensive boards.

But, even though there’s a lot to like about Love, there are also plenty of red flags: He badly needs to go on the Carlos Boozer diet if he’s going to the NBA this fall: slim down, tone up, get quicker. Even then, he’s never going to be even a good athlete in terms of agility and hops at the pro level. There are also questions about his knees. Is he big enough to play center (it’ll be interesting to see how he measures, including wing span)? Can he guard anyone?

Love looks sort of like a bigger, stronger, pre-knee injury Brian Cardinal. There’s a lot of bitterness about Cardinal due to his contract, but that’s not the worst thing for a player to be, even in the late lottery.

8. Eric Gordon: Came out like gangbusters early this year and then fell apart. Even when he was going strong, I had a lot of questions: I think he’s a mediocre, undersized athlete by the standards of high-level NBA scoring guards and without the playmaking skills to play the point. He definitely has deep, deep range on his shot, but is also inconsistent and trigger-happy. The good news is that he isn’t a one-dimensional shooter. He’s got strong body control on his drive (can take a bump and get off a good shot) and is a good free-throw shooter. I think he’ll be a scorer in the NBA, but also a volume shooter who doesn’t add a lot of value in other areas.

9. Darrell Arthur: The Kansas forward, who lit up the Tigers in last night’s title game, has been a bit of a cipher. I’ve seen him several times and am always impressed with his physical tools and skill level if not always with his rather erratic production. I think his inconsistency might have a lot to do with playing on a team with an outrageously deep and talented frontcourt rotation and in a sport (college hoops) that tends to be guard-dominated. Considering the team situation at Kansas, his numbers — 13 points, 6 boards, 54% shooting — aren’t that bad.

Arthur is an NBA athlete at the 4 (though I don’t quite buy the “young Antonio McDyess” comps) with a full complement of relevant skills: A good back-to-the-basket scorer with a drop-step, a dribble-spin move, the ability to seal his man and corral lob passes, and the skill and awareness to pass out of doubles. He also looks like an effective pick-and-pop player with a solid 15-foot jumper.

I’ll be interested to see how big he measures and wonder if he has the frame to add more muscle. I don’t think Arthur is ever going to play in an All-Star game, but I think he’ll be a quality starter.

Submitted by Chris Herrington on Tue, 04/08/2008 - 9:20pm.
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