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An automatic-writing reaction to several Griz-connected topic du jour:

Does He Stay or Does He Go?
Outside of games themselves, coaching changes — actual and anticipated — are dominating NBA news, but things are strangely silent on the Grizzlies’ front.

Over the past week or so, everyone I’ve talked to about this — both within the organization and tangentially connected — has echoed a similar take: If Marc Iavaroni was going to be gone, then it would have happened by now. I do think it’s likely Iavaroni is retained, but I don’t buy this line of argument. I think it’s more valid to spin it around: If Iavaroni was coming back, wouldn’t we know by now? What’s Michael Heisley waiting for?

My own hunch — an informed hunch, but just a hunch — is that Heisley’s very real dissatisfaction with Iavaroni has him waiting out the post-season coaching carousel. The truth is that the Grizzlies job is pretty low on the NBA totem pole right now. With the Bulls and the Knicks jobs open and with the possibility of Denver, Detroit, Phoenix, and Dallas all opening up, most coaching candidates are going to be eyeing those jobs instead, not to mention all the top coaches currently with those teams who could be looking for work. Working in Iavaroni’s favor is that the two coaches reported to be on Heisley’s radar — Larry Brown (thank you, Charlotte) and Scott Skiles (Milwaukee) — have recently taken other jobs.

Michael Heisley is, of course, within his rights to make a coaching move if he sees fit, and he has some legitimate reasons to want to do that. But keeping the situation dangling like this can’t be healthy.

Rudy Gay MIP
Rudy Gay finished second in the Most Improved Player award voting announced this week. Congrats, I guess.

I’m excited about the huge leap Rudy took this season and about the potential for further improvement next year, but I don’t like the idea of second-year players getting votes for this award. Those guys are supposed to make big leaps. Better to focus on veteran players who make substantial improvements. In that regard, I thought Hedo Turkoglu was a deserving winner. Others I would have considered: Mike Dunleavy, Chris Kaman, and even Chris Paul.

Melo Hypothetical
ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons, picking up on coming implosion of the Denver Nuggets, mentioned in a recent column the possibility of a Carmelo Anthony trade this summer and threw out this hypothetical deal based on the Grizzlies potentially getting Derrick Rose in the draft:

Carmelo Anthony for Mike Conley, Mike Miller, and Hakim Warrick

Now, I think Carmelo Anthony is the most overrated player in the league. I’ve been saying that since almost before he played an NBA game, when people were trying to make Anthony and Lebron James the new Bird/Magic even though Lebron was clearly a far more momentous talent. From day one, there’s been a gap between Anthony’s celebrity and his actual on-court value. He’s a great pure scorer that doesn’t add much value in other facets of the game, doesn’t play good team basketball, and has been a problem guy off the court. After shooting 36% in a four-game route at the hands of the Lakers, it seems like the league is starting to catch on to Anthony’s limitations.

But, for example, if asked NBA fans who’s the better small forward, Anthony or Caron Butler, almost everyone would say Anthony, but, at this point, I think Butler is the more meaningful basketball player.

The hypothetical Melo-to-the-Griz trade was discussed on The Geoff & Gary Show this week, with Geoff Calkins throwing out the additional question: Would you trade Rudy Gay to get Carmelo Anthony?

My answer: An unequivocal ‘no.’ If I’m starting a team from scratch, I’d choose Gay over Anthony.

All that said, Anthony is still an all-star level player. In the unlikely case that the Simmons scenario would actually present itself, you’d have to think about it. A trio of Rose, Gay, and Anthony would give the team starpower both in terms of reality (feeding wins) and perception (feeding fan interest in ticket sales). But, on the court, would the parts really fit? Would having Anthony hogging shots impede the development of Gay? In basketball terms, if not fan-excitement terms, I would think there would be better deals to be had.

Pau’s Play
After getting swept in three straight series with the Grizzlies, Pau Gasol was on the winning in of a sweep last night.

His stat-line on the Denver series: 22 points, 9 boards, 5 assists, 2.8 blocks, 58% shooting.

Am I surprised he played so well? Not at all. Gasol is really good and despite the team struggles, he’s always been productive in the post-season, averaging 20 points on 49% shooting through 12 post-season games with the Grizzlies.

Those Grizzlies games were against far better teams than this year’s Nuggets and alongside far inferior talent than this year’s Lakers. In a much easier situation this year, why shouldn’t Gasol have performed better than in the past?

Gasol’s fine play in the Denver series should be put into some context though. Denver is a fast-paced team, so those games generated lots of stats. More importantly are the match-ups. After watching Gasol play up close for several years, it’s clear that there are two types of match-ups that Gasol struggles with most: Brutes and big-men who can take him outside. Denver didn’t really have players who could exploit those types of match-ups. Probable second-round opponent Utah, with bruisers Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap and shooters Boozer and Mehmet Okur, will. In fact, the whole series against Utah will be slower and more physical. Gasol will still be productive, but look for his numbers to dip, especially in the shooting-percentage department, in the second round.

Draft Thoughts
I still plan on a follow-up post focusing on the team’s late-first-round pick, maybe this week. Based on more thought and a few conversations with people who have watched players more than I have, I’d alter my first lottery list slightly – moving Kevin Love up and Brook Lopez down.

Lopez is the safer pick, but I’m growing more intrigued by Love, who could provide multiple elements that this team really needs – toughness and physicality, rebounding, outside shooting, a willing and talented passer in the frontcourt. (This last, I think, is a particularly underrated need. The biggest drop-off from Pau Gasol to Hakim Warrick was in the ability to play team basketball on the offensive end.)

With Love’s conditioning and relative lack of athleticism, there’s bust potential here, but I’m feeling better about him. I think he could well be a cross between Carlos Boozer/David West and Brad Miller — a physical rebounder and deadly pick-and-pop scorer. I’m not sure that Love will ever match Boozer or West’s quickness, even if he slims down and tones up the way Boozer did after entering the league, but he’s quicker than you’d assume, and I think his superior passing ability and mean streak might make up the difference. Right now, I’d put Love with Anthony Randolph and O.J. Mayo on my second tier of draft prospects, just below Michael Beasley and Kevin Love.

Free Agency Thoughts
I’ll delve into this more later, but the three most promising free-agent targets, from a Grizzlies perspective, this summer are probably Golden State’s Monta Ellis, Philadelphia’s Andre Iguodala, and Atlanta’s Josh Smith. All are restricted free agents and all are probably going to be difficult to pry away from their teams.

Any hope of being able to get those players is probably being damaged right now. With Smith playing great at home against the Celtics, the fans in Atlanta getting energized for the first time in years, and the Hawks looking at a chance to build a legit contender around the core trio of Smith, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford, I think the Hawks are likely to match any offers.

Similarly, the Sixers’ strong showing against the Pistons puts pressure on the team’s ownership to resign Iguodala, even though he’s struggled pretty terribly so far in the series. Iguodala is the one free-agent I think the Grizzlies would be the most interested in pursuing this summer. I think Philly will be committed to keeping him, but it will be interesting to see how his struggles in the post-season impact how much money Iguodala commands this summer.

Finally, there’s Ellis, who wouldn’t be a great fit alongside Mike Conley (too small) but would look mighty nice alongside Derrick Rose if the Griz get lucky in the lottery. The situation in Golden State is volatile — Ellis and center Andris Biedrins lead a large free-agent class while Baron Davis could opt-out — but with Ellis having a break-out year, you have to suspect Ellis will be priority number one for the Warriors this summer.