The full measurements and workout data from the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp is out and, with it, the second edition of my Grizzlies draft rankings. The first edition, with fuller commentary on what I think these players can and can’t do, is here.
The biggest changes: I’m higher on Kevin Love and Eric Gordon than before, much more skeptical on Brook Lopez, and am wavering on Anthony Randolph, whose raw skills I love. I’ve still got Randolph rated ahead of Gordon on the list, but I’m increasingly torn on those two players.
The full Orlando data is here.
1. Derrick Rose
Measured in a little shorter than expected at less than 6’3” in sneaks. Still the top prospect in the draft and still unobtainable for the Grizzlies.
2. Michael Beasley:
Two primary questions are shaking Beasley’s stock a bit: Size and attitude. At just over 6’8” and 240 pounds, Beasley is built more like Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony than like a prototype power forward in the modern NBA. But, with his strength, advanced inside-outside scoring skills, and proven rebounding ability, the bet here is he manages to thrive — at least offensively and on the boards – as a somewhat undersized four. It’s worth noting that Beasley’s plus-seven-foot wingspan gives him a standing reach equal to Al Horford. Combine that with his bulk and strength, and I think he’ll be fine.
Beasley’s attitude is much harder to judge from afar. But, as long as the Grizzlies are convinced his demeanor isn’t a problem, I think it’s worth exploring opportunities to trade up with Miami or Minnesota for him if possible. I would take Rudy Gay and Mike Conley off the table, but be willing to part with a secondary asset (or two?) along with the five to move up. And, if the team is convinced of the stardom that Beasley’s college production suggests, it’d be worth it to do that even if it means giving up pieces that set the competitive timetable back a little bit. Adding Beasley to Gay and Conley to form the core should convince fans things are heading in the right direction even if the immediate won-loss results don’t follow. Still, even if Beasley seems more obtainable now than he did a week ago, getting a hold of him is still a longshot.
3. O.J. Mayo
Mayo’s all-around skills — defends, scores, handles, shoots — and the way he improved over the course of the college season have him looking like the third best prospect in the draft, but there are questions, and not just related to off-court issues.
At just over 6’4” with a so-so wingspan, Mayo has merely acceptable size for a two-guard. (He’s smaller than Dwyane Wade with what appears to be lesser athleticism.) He does have great size for a point guard, which is what some — including Mayo — believe will be his primary position in the NBA.
I’m not convinced Mayo’s a point guard, but if he is, it has the odd effect of enhancing his overall value while posing a problem for the Grizzlies, where the biggest question about potentially drafting Mayo is whether he’d be able to fit alongside Mike Conley in the backcourt when both are guards who seem to thrive with the ball in their hands. Even if Mayo is a “2,” he looks to be a playmaking “2” in the Wade-Allen Iverson mold, not someone who’s going to thrive off the ball.
I’m putting Mayo at three based on star potential, but he isn’t really a great fit on the current Grizzlies squad. I think he’d be worth taking if available. If he and Conley didn’t work out in the backcourt, a deal could be made later to sort things out.
4. Kevin Love
Ah, Kevin Love. Derided as “Man Boobs” by some. Trying to overcome a long history of white American players falling short of stardom. I hated him on sight, grew to like him over the course of the college season, started to have doubts again recently, and am now coming back around to him.
Love's Orlando results are within sniffing distance of Al Horford's a year ago. Love is a quarter-inch shorter in shoes (6’ 9.5”), weighs 10 pounds more (255), is one inch behind on standing reach (8’10”), is half an inch behind on his max vertical (35"), was two reps weaker on his bench press (18), and actually topped Horford on his lane agility and sprint tests.
My biggest question about Love was whether he’d be able to play quality part-time minutes at center when the team goes small, a prerequisite for being considered this high in the draft to me. Well, Horford was the starting center in Atlanta all season and his physical and athletic markers were only slightly better than Love’s.
Love’s athletic performance in Orlando was surprising, but the weight and body fat numbers (12.9) point at the biggest issue: Will he have the conditioning and stamina to maintain that acceptable athleticism over the course of an 82-game, 48-minute, 24-second-shot-clock NBA season?
My thinking is that Love has enough size and athleticism to let his superlative basketball skills shine at the next level — rebounding, passing, and shooting abilities that are all at all-star levels. Given Love’s youth and the fact that he’ll be subject to a more intense training/nutrition regimen at the next level, I’m going to give Love’s conditioning the benefit of the doubt.
I have some reluctance at taking Love as high as #5, but I think he’s going to be a very good pro (I detailed the ways in the previous rankings post) and I think he would provide the Grizzlies with an awful lot of elements the team really needs: toughness, rebounding, a quality passer in the frontcourt, a strong personality.
5. Anthony Randolph
Randolph’s measurements — 6’10” height, mammoth 7’3” wingspan, a 200-pound Olive Oil body — are similar to Brandon Wright’s were a year ago, and I’d expect a similar growth curve as a rookie.
But, I think Randolph is more skilled: Better handle, better shooting stroke, and better shot-blocker. I think he could be the perfect “Phoenix 4” for this team as his body develops and I do think his future is at power forward rather than small forward, where his rare combination of length and skill can pose bigger match-up problems.
But, the questions are many: Can he add the weight and strength? Does he have the competitive make-up needed to live up to his all-star potential? I remain very intrigued by Randolph, but I’m downgrading him a little because of the risk involved relative to Love and Gordon.
6. Eric Gordon
I had downgraded Gordon since the end of the college season on the fear that he’d be 6’2” with stubby arms and wouldn’t have the elite athleticism to make up for those limitations.
Well, it turns out that, in my eyes, Gordon helped himself more than any other top prospect in Orlando. Gordon’s 6’3” height isn’t ideal at the two guard (and I don’t think he can play the point), but it gets better with you start piling on other factors: his strong 220 pound frame (his 15 bench press reps doubled up Mayo and topped Rose and Bayless easily), a solid 6’9” wingspan (again, tops among those guards, not stubby at all), and his 40 inch max vertical (tied with Rose, one inch behind Mayo).
Assuming the dead-eye shooter with deep range Gordon looked like early in his college season is more legit than the shaky gunner he looked like with a bum wrist and bad team later in the year, then Gordon is back to looking like a versatile scorer at the NBA level. He could be a 20-a-game scorer, but I still don’t think he’s got the all-around game to be an all-star. Still, I’d put Gordon back in the mix at #5. That he’s got experience playing in the backcourt with Conley (in AAU) doesn’t hurt.
Others: Turns out Jerryd Bayless is really the guard with stubby arms. Bayless has combo-guard size at 6’3” and is an explosive athlete with a good shot. I don’t think he fits in the backcourt with Conley, though, and don’t like him as much as other options. … Brook Lopez has legit center size but didn’t grade out great athletically and I’ve never been able to visualize his offensive game at the next level very well. With Darko Milicic under contract and Marc Gasol potentially coming over, center is a need for the Grizzlies, but not a primary one. With Kevin Love able to give minutes in the middle, I like him over Lopez. … I’ve only seen Danillo Galinari on You Tube. He could be a star in the making, but he plays the same position as the Grizzlies’ best player and I fear he could just as easily be the next Bostjan Nachbar. … I’ve yet to see anything beyond raw size that suggest Deandre Jordan would be a smart gamble at #5.
Look for a final rankings update before the draft as well as predictions on what the Grizzlies will do.
I'll have a follow-up post on candidates at #28 in the near future.
I have stated it previously, and I will say it again. Kevin Love will be a bust. Count on it.
But I tell you what, let's throw out the fact that he won't be a good NBA player. Let's instead concentrate on something a little less "politically correct" to talk about. But still very true.
If the Grizzlies use their pick to draft a guy who is perceived by fans to be a "dumpy, over-weight, unathletic white guy", then they can be guaranteed to not sell one extra ticket next year. In fact, they will most likely lose ticket sales. I know, that seems almost impossible at this point.
K-Love is not the answer to the Grizzlies' biggest question. And that question isn't "how do we contend for a title?" (Although he isn't the answer to that one either.) The question is "how do we put butts in seats?" In this city, he would be the punchline to every Grizzlies' joke for the next few torturous years.